[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292342
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
741 PM EDT Fri Mar 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A strong cold front will enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico by
Saturday night. The pressure gradient behind the front will induce
gale-force winds over the waters east of Veracruz and Tampico by
Sunday afternoon. These conditions will prevail through early
Monday. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 03N13, where latest scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ
begins and continues to south of the Equator at 15W, to 05S30W
and to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 20W-
31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb
high that is centered over the West Atlantic. Gentle to moderate
southeasterly winds are noted in scatterometer data through the
whole area. Mid to upper level ridging continues to suppress
significant convection at this time.

As for the forecast, the surface ridge will shift eastward on
Saturday ahead of a cold front that will move off the Texas coast
by that night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the
front on Sunday over the western Gulf, reaching gale-force speeds
over the west-central Gulf on Sunday night. Refer to the section
above for details. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds, are expected along
and near this upcoming cold front that will sweep across the basin.
Winds and seas will gradually diminish through early next week as
the front shifts to the southeast of the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends from southwest Haiti to near
15N79W with scattered showers. Scattered low-topped showers are
also spreading across Hispaniola and to the east of Puerto Rico.
Gentle to moderate trades will continue across the majority of the
basin through early next week, except for light to gentle trades
in the central Caribbean from 12N-18N between 70W-80W.

The stationary front will dissipate through tonight. Little
overall changes are expected through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal system prevails across the west Atlantic. A 1015 mb low
is centered near 29N65W, with cold front extending from it to
23N66W to 20N69W. Another 1015 mb surface low is centered near
20N70W. A surface trough extends from the low to 26N72W. Scattered
showers are noted along and east of the front mainly west of 55W.
Surface ridging prevails elsewhere, anchored by a 1028 mb high
centered near 32N38W. A 1015 mb surface low is centered over the
far east Atlantic near 30N17W, with trough extending from the low
to 30N28W. Scattered showers prevail within the low.

The frontal system will weaken through Saturday. High pressure
will build off the U.S. east coast through Sunday, then continue
E ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the NE Florida
coast by early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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