[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301029
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
629 AM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A strong cold front will enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico by
this evening. The pressure gradient behind the front will induce
gale- force winds over the west-central Gulf by Sunday afternoon,
01/0000, and across the southwest Gulf by Sunday night. Seas are
expected to be 9 to 13 ft. These conditions will prevail through
early Monday. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product
under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following
website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 04N08W
to 01N17W. The ITCZ continues from 01N17W to 03S25W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 130 nm north of the ITCZ between 11W-34W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb
high that is centered over the western Atlantic. A trough is off
the coast of Florida that extends from 29N85W to 24N83W. Scattered
showers are occurring near this trough from the Florida Panhandle
southward to the west of Florida Keys. Otherwise, the latest
ASCAT pass shows light to gentle east- northeast winds are
occurring in the eastern portion of the basin, with moderate to
fresh east- southeast winds in the western and southwestern Gulf.
Mid to upper level ridging continues to suppress significant
convection.

High pressure will shift east today ahead of a cold front moving
off the Texas coast this evening. The front is forecast to reach a
position from northern Florida to the central Bay of Campeche on
Sunday evening, and extend from southern Florida to the north of
the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N90W on Monday evening. Fresh to
strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front
over the western Gulf on Sunday. Refer to the section above
for details. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with
occasional strong gusty winds, are expected along and near the
front as it sweeps across the basin. Winds and seas will
gradually diminish through early next week as the front shifts to
the southeast of the area.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough extends from western Haiti near 18N74W into the central
Caribbean near 16N79W. Scattered low-topped showers are occurring
along this feature and into most of Hispaniola and near Puerto
Rico. Showers are also moving off of Panama into the southern
Caribbean. Light to gentle trades continue across the majority of
the basin with gentle to moderate trades winds in the southeast
Caribbean. Off the southwest coast of Cuba, there are moderate to
fresh northeasterly winds.

The trough extending into the central Caribbean will dissipate
today. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to
strong NE to E winds near the coast of Colombia at night beginning
Sun night, with seas building in the 8 to 10 ft range during the
period of the strongest winds. Otherwise, generally moderate trade
winds will persist across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic
west of 55W through the middle of next week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An occluded system continues to move through the western
Atlantic. A 1011 mb low is centered near 30N65W with an occluded
front stretching northeast from the low. From the occlusion, a
cold front enters the waters near 31N61W and stretches to the
south near 21N65W. From that point, the tail end of the boundary
becomes stationary and stretches into the northern Dominican
Republic. Showers and thunderstorms are noted along and east of
the front west of 56W. A trough stretches south from the low from
30N65W to 23N71W. Isolated showers are seen along this trough.
Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin anchored by a 1028 mb high near 31N38W. A 1015 mb low
continues to remain near the Canary Islands near 29N15W.
Showers are diminishing in coverage but isolated activity still
continue near this low across the islands.

The cold front will gradually stall and weaken through tonight as
the low pressure continues to move northeast of the area,
allowing winds and seas to diminish accordingly. High pressure
will build off the U.S. east coast in the wake of the low through
Sunday, then continues east ahead of the next cold front expected
to move off the northeast Florida coast by Sunday night. A low
pressure is forecast to develop along the frontal boundary near
30N77W by Monday night. Gale conditions could be possible across
the north waters between the low and high pressure over the
Carolinas Monday night, and again Tuesday night as the low
pressure deepens just north of area.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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