[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Frequent wind gusts to gale force are underway off the northeast
coast of Florida behind a southward moving cold front. This front
extends from 31N68W to Melbourne, Florida. Expect these conditions
to expand southward toward the Atlantic waters near South Florida
and the NW Bahamas by late Wednesday as low pressure develops
along the front near the NW Bahamas. Seas of 9 to 13 ft are
expected Wednesday and Thursday in the waters east of Florida and
north of the Bahamas. Winds and seas should begin to diminish by
late Thursday or early Friday as the front and low pressure drift
slowly eastward. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas
Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the
following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N08W
to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to 03S27W to the coast
of Brazil near 05S35W. Scattered moderate to isolated convection
is north of the ITCZ from 05N-01N between 16W-21W. Scattered
moderate to isolated convection is also noted off the Brazil
coastline along the ITCZ from 04N-08N and west of 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is sinking southward across the southern Gulf of
Mexico. This front extends from Punta Gorda, Florida to the
Mexican coast near 24N98W. Scattered showers are seen within 60 nm
of the front particularly in the southeastern Gulf. Off the
north- central Florida coast, a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms are entering the waters and are moving south toward
the Tampa Bay area. Behind the front, high pressure is building
across the northern Gulf. Moderate to fresh north winds are
observed across the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds
are south of the front, with light to gentle winds in the western
Gulf along the Texas coast.

The cold front will continue to shift south across the Gulf
waters and southeast of the area late today. Expect fresh to
strong N to NE winds over the eastern Gulf through Thursday as
the pressure gradient tightens there. The next cold front will
move into the NW Gulf on Sunday followed by fresh to strong NE
winds and building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers continue moving across the northern portion of
the basin. Scattered showers are also moving across central and
eastern Cuba, Jamaica, and across Hispaniola. Isolated showers are
west of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trades cover most
of the eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle winds continue across
the northwest Caribbean with moderate winds between Cuba and the
Yucatan.

High pressure east of Bermuda will support fresh to strong trade
winds near the coast of Colombia through tonight, then mainly
moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast
period. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean late today, then
stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras through
the latter part of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the waters near 31N68W and extends westward
near Melbourne, Florida. A surface trough is also just off the
Florida coast. Showers and thunderstorms are moving southward off
the Florida coast from 32N-29N and west of 76W. Showers with
isolated thunderstorms are moving right along the cold front and
across the northern Bahamas west of 75W. Farther east, a surface
trough extends from 31N64W to 20N73W. To the east of the trough,
unstable conditions along with ample low-level convergence and
upper-level divergence are enhancing scattered showers and
thunderstorms from 31N-23N and west of 60W.

Mid to upper level ridging is centered over the south Atlantic,
with surface riding stretching over most of the basin anchored by
a 1029 mb high pressure near 41N39W. Scattered showers are off the
northern coast of Morocco due to a strengthening low pressure
system in the far NE Atlantic near Morocco and the Strait of
Gibraltar.

Low pressure will develop near the northern Bahamas along the
cold front. Winds will increase to gale force today and tonight
north of the Bahamas and off the coast of NE Florida. The front
will stall from 26N65W to the Windward Passage through Friday,
then dissipate through late Saturday. Winds and seas will
diminish through late week as the low pressure weakens as it moves
westward along the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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