[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Frequent wind gusts to gale force are underway off the northeast
coast of Florida behind a southward moving cold front. The gale
force winds will continue today through the evening hours. The
front extends from a low pressure near 27N79W Palm Beach, Florida.
Expect these conditions to expand southward toward the Atlantic
waters to NW Bahamas by late Wednesday. Seas of 10 to 14 ft are
expected through Thursday in the waters east of Florida and north
of the Bahamas. Winds and seas should begin to diminish by late
Thursday or early Friday as the front and low pressure drift
slowly eastward. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas
Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the
following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 04N08W
to 01N16W. The ITCZ continues from 01N16W to 02S30W to the coast
of Brazil near 02S41W. Scattered moderate to isolated convection
is north of the ITCZ from 10N-02N between 16W-21W. Scattered
moderate convection is also noted off the Brazil coastline and
along the ITCZ from 08S-00N and west of 24W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is sinking southward across the southern Gulf of
Mexico. This front extends from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan
Peninsula west to 23N96W, then it continues as a stationary front
into Mexico near 24N97W. Scattered showers are possible within 60
nm of the front particularly in the southeastern Gulf. A surface
trough behind the front stretches from the western Atlantic
across Clearwater, Florida near 27N82W to 27N84W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorm are developing along the vicinity of the
trough. A 1030 mb high pressure is building across the northern
Gulf with fresh to strong winds across the eastern portion of the
basin. Gentle winds are south of the front, with light to gentle
winds in the western Gulf along the Texas coast.

A cold front over the southern Gulf waters will continue to shift
S, moving southeast of the area late today. Fresh to strong N to
NE winds will prevail over the eastern Gulf through Thu. The next
cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sun followed by fresh to
strong NE winds and building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...


Cold front extending from a 1013 mb low pressure over the NW
Bahamas enters the NW Caribbean waters today. Scatterometer
data indicates moderate to fresh winds ahead of the front from
NW Cuba to the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers extend 90 nm
south of the front. Scattered showers are also moving across
the Greater Antilles. Isolated showers are west of the Lesser
Antilles. Light to gentle winds cover portion of the eastern
Caribbean and a moderate to fresh trades cover most of the
central Caribbean south of 15N to the coast of Colombia.

High pressure east of Bermuda will support fresh to strong trade
winds near the coast of Colombia through tonight, then mainly
moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast
period. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean late today, then
stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras through
the latter part of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the waters near 31N65W and extends westward
to a 1013 mb low pressure near 26N79W and connects to another
front south to NW Cuba. A surface trough is also just off the
Florida coast between 29N76W to 27N80W. Showers and thunderstorms
are moving southward off the Florida coast 60 nm southeast of the
boundary. Some of the storms are producing a waterspouts and
strong gusty winds up to 34 knots near the coast of Florida.
Farther east, a surface trough enters the waters from 31N59W to
Hispaniola near 19N70W. To the east of the trough, unstable
conditions along with ample low-level convergence and upper-
level divergence are enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms
180 nm east of the trough axis.

Gale force winds will prevail today and tonight north of the
Bahamas and off the coast of NE Florida behind the cold front near
the Florida coast. The front will stall from 26N65W to the
Windward Passage through Fri, then dissipate through late Sat.
Winds and seas will diminish through late week as the low pressure
weakens as it moves eastward along the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
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