[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
149 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Frequent wind gusts to gale force is currently off the northeast
coast of Florida behind a southward moving cold front, which
extends from 31N70W to Cocoa Beach Florida. Expect these
conditions to expand southward toward the Atlantic waters near
South Florida and the NW Bahamas by late Wed as low pressure
develops along the front near the NW Bahamas. Seas of 9 to 13 ft
are expected Wednesday and Thursday in the waters east of Florida
and north of the Bahamas. Winds and seas should begin to diminish
by late Thursday or early Friday as the front and low pressure
drift slowly eastward. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High
Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the
following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from 00N20W to 03S28W to the coast
of Brazil near 04S38W. A small area of scattered moderate
convection is seen near the point where the monsoon trough and
ITCZ meet. There is also scattered moderate to isolated convection
seen along and 400 nm south of the ITCZ just off the coast of
Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is sinking southward across the central Gulf of
Mexico. The front stretches from just south of Tampa Bay Florida
to just south of Brownsville Texas. Isolated showers are near and
ahead of the front within 60 nm. High pressure ridging is
building into the northwest Gulf behind the front. Moderate to
fresh north winds are north of the front with moderate winds over
the Gulf south of the front.

The cold front will continue to shift south across the Gulf
waters then push southeast of the area on Wednesday. Expect fresh
to strong north to northeast winds over the eastern Gulf Wednesday
through Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens there. The
next cold front will move into the northwest Gulf on Saturday
night followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building
seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen over Cuba and
Hispaniola as shown by satellite loops of total precipitable
water. Isolated showers are over the eastern Caribbean, just west
of the Windward Islands. Moderate to fresh trades cover much of
the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle winds across the
northwest Caribbean.

High pressure east of Bermuda will support fresh to strong trade
winds near the coast of Colombia through Wednesday night, then
mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the
forecast period. A cold front will reach the northwest Caribbean
on Wednesday, then stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to
eastern Honduras through the latter part of the week. Fresh
northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front over the NW
Caribbean Wednesday and Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N70W to Cocoa Beach Florida. A
surface trough is analyzed over central Florida, extending into
Georgia. Broad mid to upper level troughing also covers the
southeast U.S. and western Atlantic. A surface trough is along 67W
from 31N to northern Dominican Republic. To the northeast of
the trough, unstable conditions along with ample low-level
convergence and upper-level divergence are enhancing scattered
showers and thunderstorms from 31N-21N between 59W-66W.

Farther east, a dissipating cold front and stationary front
extends from enters the area near 26N35W to 27N46W to 29N53W.
Isolated showers are near the front. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms extend from the coast of Morocco to 300 nm
offshore Morocco north of 32N due to a strengthening low pressure
system in the far NE Atlantic near Morocco and the Strait of
Gibraltar.

The cold front will shift southeast on Wednesday. A low pressure
will develop along the front to the north or northeast of the
northwest Bahamas late Wednesday through Thursday, followed by
strong to gale force northerly winds and building seas. Winds and
seas diminish later in the week as the front and low pressure
drift slowly eastward. High pressure will build in the wake of the
front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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