[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
724 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Strong to near gale force winds will develop this evening, with
frequent gusts to gale force, off the northeast coast of Florida
behind a southward moving cold front, which extends from 32N74W to
Cape Canaveral Florida. Expect these conditions to expand
southward toward the Atlantic waters near South Florida and the NW
Bahamas by late Wed as low pressure develops along the front near
the NW Bahamas. Seas of 9 to 13 ft are expected Wed and Thu in
the waters east of Florida and north of the Bahamas. Winds and
seas should begin to diminish by late Thu or early Fri as the
front and low pressure drift slowly eastward. Please refer to the
latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers
FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 04S30W to the coast
of Brazil near 04S38W. Isolated to scattered areas of moderate
convection are seen within 270 nm north and within 540 nm south of
the monsoon trough and ITCZ axes between the coast of Africa and
the coast of South America. Numerous moderate with embedded
scattered strong convection is noted farther west just inland and
near the coast of NE Brazil from 04S-00N between 46W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is sinking southward across the central Gulf of
Mexico. The front stretches from Tampa Bay Florida to Brownsville
Texas. Isolated showers are near and ahead of the front east of
89W and west of 93W, with clearer conditions between 89W-93W. High
pressure ridging is building into the NW Gulf behind the front.
Moderate to fresh N winds are north of the front, with moderate
winds over the Gulf south of the front.

The cold front will continue to shift S across the Gulf waters,
then push southeast of the area Wed. Expect fresh to strong
northerly winds over the eastern Gulf Wed through Thu as the
pressure gradient tightens there. Then expect moderate to fresh
southerly return flow over the northwest Gulf by late week. The
next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat night followed by
fresh to strong NE winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen over Cuba and
Hispaniola due to afternoon heating combined with sufficient
moisture in the region, as shown by satellite loops of total
precipitable water. Isolated showers are over the eastern
Caribbean, just west of the Windward Islands. Moderate to fresh
trades cover much of the eastern and central Caribbean, with
gentle winds across the northwest Caribbean.

High pressure east of Bermuda will support fresh to strong trade
winds off Colombia into mid week. Winds will diminish mid to late
week as the high pressure shifts east ahead of a cold front. The
front will move into the northwest Caribbean Wed, then stall and
dissipate from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras through the latter
part of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N74W to Cape Canaveral Florida. A
pre-frontal trough extends from 32N71W to near the NW Bahamas.
North of the front, a surface trough is analyzed over the Florida
Peninsula, extending into Georgia. Broad mid to upper level
troughing also covers the southeast U.S. and western Atlantic.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the east
coast of Florida and Atlantic waters west of 79W. Similar activity
is observed north of 28N between 70W-79W. A surface trough is
along 70W from 20N-27N. To the northeast of these aforementioned
weather features, unstable conditions along with ample low-level
convergence and upper-level divergence are enhancing scattered
showers and thunderstorms from 22N-32N between 60W-70W.

Farther east, a cold front enters the area near 32N33W to 27N37W
to 27N46W, and extends as a stationary front to 28N54W,
dissipating to 28N60W. Isolated showers are near the front.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extend from the coast
of Morocco to 180 nm offshore Morocco north of 29N due to a
strengthening low pressure system in the far NE Atlantic near
Morocco and the Strait of Gibraltar.

The cold front off the NE Florida coast will move south Wed, then
shift eastward later this week. Near gale conditions with frequent
gusts to gale force are expected northwest of the front tonight
through early Thu. See section above for details. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front Friday into the early part of
the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net