[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds are expected to pulse every night near the
coast of Colombia through Monday night. A low pressure developing
near the Bahamas will weaken the ridge over the western Atlantic
and allow the gale-winds to diminish. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the
AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 00N29W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted near the ITCZ mainly S of 03N between 20W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal system extends across the southern portion of the basin,
analyzed as a stationary front from 25N80W to 24N86W to a 1015 mb
low near 21N91W to 18N92W. A secondary push of cooler/drier air is
analyzed over central Florida as a surface trough from 27N80W to
26N83W. Extensive low to mid-level cloudiness and scattered
showers are observed across most of the Gulf of Mexico, except for
the Straits of Florida. A surface trough is analyzed over the
northwest Gulf from 26N96W to 21N94W.

High pressure will continue building across the basin in the wake
of the front. The gradient between the front and the high
pressure across Texas and eastern Mexico, will support strong to
near-gale force northwest to north winds behind the stationary
front and west of 94W through early Mon evening, then diminish to
strong speeds through Tue night. Strong northeast to east winds
will cover just about the entire Gulf on Mon and through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning was in effect until 17/1500 UTC from the waters
north of Colombia mainly south of 12N between 74W-76W with seas
9-12 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere across
the basin. A surface trough extends across the Windward Passage
with scattered showers. These showers are also affecting Haiti,
Jamaica, and Cuba.

High pressure centered to the southeast of Bermuda will continue
to support fresh trade winds across much of the central Caribbean
through mid-week before winds begin to diminish through the end
of the week. Winds will pulse to minimal gale-force along the
coast of Colombia again tonight and Monday night. Refer to the
section above for details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the west Atlantic from 31N70W to 25N80W.
Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. A surface trough
is noted from 27N66W to 24N67W with scattered showers. To the
east, a 1020 mb high is centered near 29N60W. A 1014 mb surface low
is centered over the central Atlantic near 31N44W, with a surface
trough extending from 31N40W to 21N48W. Scattered showers are
noted with the trough mainly north of 26N between 36W-42W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1030 mb high centered north of 31N and east of 30W.

The cold front slowly move southeast through early next week
while weakening. Strong northerly winds will prevail across the
western half of the basin through at least mid-week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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