[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds are expected to pulse every night near the
coast of Colombia through Monday night. A low pressure developing
near the Bahamas will weaken the ridge over the western Atlantic
and allow the gale-winds to diminish. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the
AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 00N27W to the
coast of Brazil near 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted near the ITCZ from 01N-07S between 25W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal system extends across the southern portion of the basin,
analyzed as a stationary front from 27N78W to 23N89W to 19N92W. A
secondary push of cooler/drier air is analyzed over central
Florida as a surface trough from 27N80W to 26N84W. Extensive low
to mid-level cloudiness and scattered showers are observed across
most of the Gulf of Mexico except for the Straits of Florida. A
surface trough is analyzed over the northwest Gulf from 26N96W to
22N95W.

Strong high pressure over Texas and eastern Mexico will support
strong to near gale-force NW to N winds S of 26N and W of 94W
through early Monday evening. Winds in this area will slowly
diminish through Tue night. Strong NE to E winds will cover almost
the entire Gulf of Mexico Tue and Tue night as the front sinks
slowly S to exit the Gulf by Wed evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across most of the
Caribbean basin. Strong near gale winds are noted north of
Colombia. A surface trough extends south of Cuba and along the
eastern tip of Jamaica. This trough was bringing showers across
portions of Haiti, eastern Cuba, and Jamaica.

High pressure centered SE of Bermuda near 28N59W will
support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central
Caribbean Sea through early Wednesday before the high moves E and
wind speeds diminish for the remainder of the week. Trade winds
will pulse to minimal gale-force along the coast of Colombia
tonight and Monday night. Moderate to fresh trade winds will
continue across the remainder of the area through the middle of
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the west Atlantic from 31N69W to 27N78W with
the stationary front extending from 27N78W into the Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered showers are within 100 nm of the front. A surface
trough is noted from 24N63W to 20N66W with scattered showers. To
the east, a 1021 mb high is centered near 28N59W. A 1014 mb
surface low is centered over the central Atlantic near 30N45W,
with a surface trough extending from 34N39W to 21N46W. Scattered
showers are noted with the trough mainly north of 25N between
36W-40W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1032 mb high centered near 44N20W.

High pres centered the western Atlantic near 28N59W will continue
heading ESE and weaken through mid week. The cold front will move
slowly SE Mon and reach from near 31N65W to the Straits of
Florida Tue, from near 26N65W to central Cuba on Wed, then weaken
as reaches from near 25N65W to east central Cuba on Thu. Strong N
winds will cover the western half of the basin Mon night through
Tue. Winds will veer to NE and become strong across the basin N of
24N on Wed, before shifting to the E of 70W Wed night and Thu.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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