[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale force winds are expected to pulse at night near the coast
of Colombia each night from tonight through Monday night, then
low pressure developing near the Bahamas will weaken the ridge
over the western Atlc and allow the gales to diminish. The present
gale is forecast to end on 17/1500 UTC, and is forecast to restart
on 18/0000 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 04S30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01N-06N between 00W-07W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 03N-07S between 18W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Lake Worth Florida to S of Marco
Island Florida to 24N87W to 22N93W to the Bap of Campeche near
19N91W. Extensive low to mid-level cloudiness and patchy rain is
observed across most of the Gulf of Mexico except for the Straits
of Florida.

High pressure is present to the northwest and north of the Gulf of
Mexico front. The gradient between the front and high pressure
across Texas and eastern Mexico, will support strong to near gale
force northwest to north winds behind the stationary front and
west of 94W through early Mon evening, then diminish to strong
speeds through Tue night. Strong northeast to east winds will
cover just about the entire Gulf on Mon and through Tue. The cold
front will reach from near 26N81W to 25N86W and stationary to
22N95W and to 18N93W by early this evening and continue to push
southward through Tue as it moves over northwestern Cuba through
and become stationary on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale is along the coast of Colombia from 11N-12N between 74W-76W
with seas 9-12 ft. The remainder of the Caribbean has 10-30 kt
tradewinds with weakest winds over the NW Caribbean. Scattered
showers are noted over Hispaniola, Costa Rica, Panama, N Colombia,
and NW Venezuela. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W
Caribbean with axis along 80W, and a trough is over the E
Caribbean with axis along 60W. Very strong subsidence is over the
entire Caribbean and Central America suppressing convection.

High pressure centered to the southeast of Bermuda will support
fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central Caribbean
through early Wed before winds begin to diminish through the
remainder of the week. Trade winds will pulse to minimal gale-
force along the coast of Colombia tonight and Mon night. Moderate
to fresh trade winds will continue across the remainder of the
area through the middle part of the next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N72W to Lake
Worth Florida near 26.5N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
of the front. A 1020 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 28N60W.
A 1014 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 31N46W. A
surface trough extends SW to 28N49W. Scattered showers are within
60 nm of the trough. Another surface trough id over the central
Atlantic from 31N40W to 26N43W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm of this trough. A 1028 mb high is over the E Atlantic
near 35N25W.

Over the W Atlantic, high pressure will continue to slide east-
southeast and weaken through tonight. The W Atlantic front will
begin to slowly move southeast early on Mon, reaching from near
31N65W to the Straits of Florida Tue morning, from near 27N65W to
northwest Cuba by early on Tue, from near 26N65W to central Cuba
on Wed and from near 25N65W to east-central Cuba on Thu while
weakening. Strong north winds will cover just about the entire
western half of the basin Mon night through Tue then become strong
northeast winds over the basin north of 24N on Wed before
shifting to east of 70W Wed night and Thu.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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