[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale force winds are expected to pulse at night near the coast
of Colombia each night from tonight through Monday night, then
low pressure developing near the Bahamas will weaken the ridge
over the western Atlc and allow the gales to diminish. A gale
started on 17/0000 UTC, and is forecast to end on 17/1200 UTC.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 04S30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 00N-04S between 10W-20W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 03N-05S between 20W-24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from Ft Myers
Florida near 26N82W to a 1015 mb low centered over the W Gulf near
22N94W. A stationary front extends from the low to the Bay of
Campeche near 19N91W. Extensive low to mid-level cloudiness and
patchy rain is observed across all portions of the northern and
western Gulf of Mexico NW of the front. Over the SE Gulf light to
moderate winds and fair weather are evident.

The gradient between the Gulf of Mexico front and high pressure
across Texas and eastern Mexico, will support strong NW to N winds
behind the front and west of 94W through Mon night. The cold
front will shift southward late Sun into Mon, reaching from the
Florida Bay to 21.5N93W to east Bay of Campeche, then become
stationary again on Tue along the NW coast of Cuba and the lower
Straits of Florida, southwestward to along or just offshore the
north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through early on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale is along the coast of Colombia from 11N-12N between 74W-76W
with seas 9-12 ft. The remainder of the Caribbean has 10-30 kt
tradewinds with weakest winds over the NW Caribbean. No
significant precipitation is presently noted over the Caribbean
Sea or Central America. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W
Caribbean with axis along 80W, and a trough is over the E
Caribbean with axis along 60W. Very strong subsidence is over the
entire Caribbean and Central America suppressing precipitation.

High pressure centered SE of Bermuda will support fresh to strong
trade winds across much of the central Caribbean through early
Wed before winds begin to diminish through the remainder of the
week. Tradewinds will pulse to minimal gale- force along the coast
of Colombia at night, beginning tonight through Mon night.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the remainder
of the area through the middle part of the next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N75W to S Florida near
27N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A 1022 mb
high is over the W Atlantic near 29N63W. A dissipating stationary
front is over the central Atlantic from 31N39W to 21N50W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1027 mb high is
over the E Atlantic near 35N25W.

Over the W Atlantic, high pressure just SE of Bermuda will shift
ESE and weaken through Sun night. The W Atlantic cold front will
reach from 31N71W to near 29N75W and then stationary to southern
Florida by Sun morning where it will briefly stall. The front will
then begin to sink slowly SE early Mon, reaching from 31N65W to
the Straits of Florida Tue morning, and from 27N65W to NW Cuba by
Tue morning. Increasing winds and seas are expected north of the
front and west of 70W Mon through early Wed, then shifting east of
70W Wed through Thu.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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