[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
137 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front extends over the Gulf of Mexico from Apalachicola
Florida to 23N94W to 18N93W. Gale force winds are occurring in the
SW Gulf of Mexico, mainly south of 21N and west of 95W. Seas of
10-16 ft are expected through early this morning over the SW Gulf
of Mexico, mainly south of 24N and west of the front. The gales
will continue in the SW Gulf off Veracruz until 1800 UTC today.
Strong to locally near gale force winds are then expected to
continue W of the front along the coast of Mexico tonight and Sun
as a sharp ridge remains in place along the eastern slopes of the
Sierra Madre Oriental. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 02N22W to
03S26W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is present from 00N-04N between 06W-
14W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 00N-06N
between 06W-19W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is seen
from 06S-01S between 22W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends over the Gulf of Mexico from Apalachicola
Florida to 23N94W to 18N93W. Numerous moderate rainshowers and
scattered thunderstorms are seen along and W of the front,
especially NW of a line from 30N86W to 25N98W. A 16/0302 ASCAT
pass shows near gale N to NE winds within 180 nm NW of the front
west of 90W, with strong winds covering the remainder of the NW
Gulf closer to the coasts of Texas and western Louisiana. The
strong mid-upper level ridging that had been over the south-
central and SE Gulf is starting to move away toward the E. This,
along with a surface trough over the W Yucatan Peninsula is
responsible for recent development of isolated showers over the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
also seen just north of the western tip of Cuba from 22N-24N
between 82W-86W. A surface trough over the Florida Peninsula
is inducing isolated showers over portions of southern and central
Florida and the waters just off of Ft. Myers and Port Charlotte.

A surface ridge building south across Texas and eastern Mexico
will support strong to gale force winds behind the cold front this
morning. The front will reach from the Florida W coast near 27.5N
to 23N95W to E Bay of Campeche later this morning, then become
stationary and meander through Sun. The front will push south as a
cold front on Mon, and become stationary for a second time, along
the NW coast of Cuba extending west southwestward to just
offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula through Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong mid level anticyclonic flow and subsidence cover the
western Caribbean. Isolated showers are near the W tip of Cuba
near the eastern Yucatan Channel. Typical isolated showers are
over portions of the NE Caribbean as well. The latest ASCAT pass
from Friday evening shows strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean south of 15N, with near gales near the coast of
Colombia. Fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except for moderate in
the NW Caribbean. Strong winds are likely occurring in the Gulf of
Honduras.

High pressure across the W Atlc will support fresh to strong
trades across much of the central Caribbean through Tue. Strong to
near gale-force winds along coastal Colombia will continue with
peak winds during the night and early morning hours. Moderate to
fresh trade winds will continue across the remainder of the area
through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high centered just NE of Bermuda extends a ridge SW
over the forecast waters in the western Atlantic to the NW
Bahamas. Mid-upper level ridging is also present over the W
Atlantic west of about 67W. A surface trough over the Florida
peninsula is producing isolated showers over Florida. Farther
east, a cold front enters the discussion area near 32N41W and
curves SW to 26N46W to 22N52W, then continues W as a stationary
front to 21N58W. A weakening stationary front continues westward
along 21N to the SE Bahamas. A surface trough extends from 22N50W
to 17N54W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near the
stationary front from 20N-24N between 47W-58W. An occluded low is
near 35N49W. A mid-upper level trough axis extends from 32N48W to
22N58W to the eastern Caribbean Sea. Those features, along with
the cold front, are producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms north of 29N between 34W-48W. Surface ridging covers
the eastern Atlantic, emanating from high pressure near and east
of the Azores.

The weakening stationary front along 21N will drift south to near
the N coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico through Sunday and
gradually dissipate. High pressure across the W Atlc will shift
southeastward and weaken through the weekend. The next cold front
will move off the SE Georgia and NE Florida coasts early this
morning and reach from near 31N77W to Stuart Florida by early
this afternoon, and from near Bermuda to near 29N74W and
stationary to southern Florida by early Sunday. The front will
eventually become stationary from near 29N65W across the central
Bahamas to NW Cuba late Tue. Low pressure may develop along the
front Tue through Wed and track northeastward, with increasing
winds and seas expected across much of the central and western
waters.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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