[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161050
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front extends over the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Big
Bend to 24N93W, and stationary to 18N93W. Gale force winds are
occurring in the SW Gulf of Mexico, mainly south of 21N and west
of 95W. Seas of 10-15 ft are expected through early this morning
over the SW Gulf of Mexico, mainly south of 22N and west of the
front. The gales will continue in the SW Gulf off Veracruz until
1800 UTC today. Strong to locally near gale force winds are then
expected to continue W of the front along the coast of Mexico
tonight and Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale force winds are expected at night near the coast of
Colombia, beginning tonight and also again on Sunday night. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 02N22W to
03S26W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is present from 01S-07N between 09W-
14W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-04N between 17W-19W
and within 150 nm of the ITCZ between 24W and the coast of South
America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends over the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Big
Bend to 24N93W, and stationary to 21N94W to 18N93W. Numerous
moderate rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms cover the
northern and western Gulf of Mexico NW of the front, but not
within 30 nm of the Texas coast. A 16/0302 ASCAT pass shows near
gale N to NE winds within 180 nm NW of the front west of 90W, with
strong winds covering the remainder of the NW Gulf closer to the
coasts of Texas and western Louisiana. The strong mid-upper level
ridging that had been over the south-central and SE Gulf is
starting to move away toward the E. This, along with a surface
trough over the W Yucatan Peninsula is responsible for recent
development of isolated showers over the eastern Bay of Campeche.
Isolated showers are also seen just north of the western tip of
Cuba from 22N-24N between 82W-86W. A surface trough over the
Florida peninsula is inducing isolated showers over the central
Florida peninsula and the waters just offshore between Port
Charlotte and Sarasota.

The gradient between the cold front over the Gulf and high
pressure building S across Texas and eastern Mexico will support
strong to gale force northwest to north winds behind the front
over the SW Gulf into early this afternoon as the cold front
reaches from near Tampa Bay Florida to 25N90W to 23N94W and
stationary to 18N94W. The cold front will reach from SW Florida by
late tonight to 23N89W and to 22N93W, where it will continue as
stationary to 18.5N93W. The cold front will push southward some
more reaching the Straits of Florida late Sun into Mon, while the
stationary part weakens. The cold front will again become
stationary on Tue along the northwest coast of Cuba and lower
Straits of Florida, southwestward to along or just offshore the
northern and northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through
early Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong mid level anticyclonic flow and subsidence cover the
western Caribbean, although some showers are located near a trough
within and just N of the Yucatan Channel. A mid-upper level trough
axis runs through the eastern Caribbean. Typical isolated showers
are over portions of the NE Caribbean. The latest ASCAT pass from
Friday evening shows strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean south of 15N, with near gales near the coast of
Colombia. Fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except for moderate in
the NW Caribbean. Strong winds are likely occurring in the Gulf of
Honduras.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trades over much of the central Caribbean through Wed. These
winds will likely decrease in coverage Tue through Wed night.
Northeast to east winds will pulse to minimal gale force at night
tonight and Sun night, with some possibility that they may again
pulse to gale force on Mon night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh
trade winds will continue across the remainder of the area through
the middle part of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has moved into the W Atlantic and extends from 32N80W
to Jacksonville Florida to the Florida Big Bend. Isolated showers
are over Florida and just east of central Florida due to a
surface trough over Florida. Isolated showers are also near the
coast of Georgia more due to the front. A 1024 mb surface high
near 34N61W extends a ridge over most of the western Atlantic
waters. Farther east, a cold front enters the area near 32N40W to
29N41W to 24N47W to 22N53W, and stationary to 21N57W. Scattered
moderate convection is along the front between 44W-53W. Scattered
showers are also seen north of 29N between 35W-49W due to a
combination of upper level and surface features in the area.
Surface ridging covers the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1024 mb
high centered near 35N23W.

High pressure across the western Atlantic will shift SE and weaken
through Sun night. A weak cold front is just offshore the Georgia
and northeast Florida coasts. This front will reach from near
31N77W to Stuart Florida by early this afternoon, and from near
Bermuda to near 29N74W and stationary to southern Florida by early
on Sun. The front will become stationary from near 29N65W to the
central Bahamas to northwest Cuba by late Sun. Low pressure may
develop along the front Tue through Wed and track northeastward,
with increasing winds and building seas expected across much of
the central and western waters.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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