[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152332
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
732 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front extends over the Gulf of Mexico from 30N86W to
26N92W to 20N96W. Satellite-derived sea height data from around
1550Z indicated gale force winds were occurring over the waters W
of the front off the Texas coast as well as all the waters W of
the front and adjacent to the Mexican State of Tamaulipas. The
gales will continue through Sat afternoon but gradually wind down
from N to S with the final area of gales located over the waters
adjacent to Veracruz. Seas of 10 to 15 feet are expected W of the
front during this time frame. Strong to near gale force winds are
then expected to continue W of the front along the coast of Mexico
Sat night and Sun as a sharp ridge remains in place along the
eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 02N25W to the
coast of Brazil near 04S41W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is present from 00N and 05S between 25W and
40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front crosses the Gulf of Mexico from 30N86W to 26N92W to
20N96W. Extensive cloudiness and patchy rain are seen along and W
of the front. Strong to gale force NE winds are found W of the
front while moderate ESE winds are occurring E of the front.
Upper-level ridging over the SE Gulf of Mexico is maintaining
strong subsidence over the area. Elsewhere, convergent low-level
winds near South Florida are generating scattered light showers
from 25N to 27N between 81W and 83W.

The cold front will begin to slow down as it moves across the
eastern Gulf tonight and Sat, and become stationary from near Fort
Myers, Florida to 23N87W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun
and Sun night. A reinforcing surge of cold air will push the front
south as a cold front on Mon. The front will once again become
stationary across the Straits of Florida, N Cuba, and WSW to near
the Yucatan Peninsula through Tue night. A trough will set up from
NW to SW over the SW Gulf on Sun and weaken Mon through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The NE gale-force winds that were occurring within 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia have abated and have allowed sea heights in this
area to subside to around 9 ft. Winds along the coast of Colombia
will remain strong to near gale force through the middle of next
week as ridging over the western Atlc is weakened by low pressure
moving E from the United States. The slightly weaker high pressure
north of the area will support fresh to strong trades in much of
the central Caribbean Sea through Tue. Moderate to fresh trade
winds will continue across the remainder of the area through early
next week. Shower coverage remains isolated over the basin as an
upper-level ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America
maintains subsident flow over the western Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb high centered near 35N62W ridges SW over the forecast
waters in the western Atlantic to near Cape Canaveral Florida. A
cold front enters the discussion area near 32N42W and curves SW
to 25N47W to 21N55W, continues W as a stationary front to
21N62W, then finally W as a weakening stationary front to 20N67W
to 22N72W to just N of eastern Cuba near 21N75W. A surface trough
precedes the front from 29N43W to 23N47W. Scattered moderate
convection associated with these features is observed N of a line
from 30N39W to 26N43W to 30N46W. Ridging extending SW from 1028 mb
high pres centered NE of the Azores near 42N16W is supporting
light to moderate NE winds over the tropical Atlc between 25W and
the Windward Islands.

The stationary front will dissipate by Sat afternoon, while the
cold front will progress slowly E and stall from near 32N40W to
22N50W by Sun afternoon and weaken as it does so. High pressure
north of the front will shift ESE through the weekend in response
to the next cold front expected to move off the SE Georgia and NE
Florida coasts Fri night. This next front will reach from near
31N77W to Stuart, Florida by early Sat afternoon, from near
Bermuda to near 29N74W and stationary to southern Florida by early
Sun, from near 31N65W to 29N69W and stationary to the NW Bahamas
and to southern Florida by early Mon afternoon, then become
stationary from near 29N65W to 27N74W and to the central Bahamas
and to the Straits of Florida and Cuba on Tues. Low pressure may
develop along this next front near the Bahamas, then track NE
early next week. Increasing winds and building seas would result
for much of the central and western waters.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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