[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132332
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
732 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Minimal NE gale-force winds are expected to continue pulsing at
night along the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night.
Corresponding sea heights when winds are highest will range
between 8 to 11 feet. A respite in the gales is expected Fri and
Sat as low pres moving E from the United States mainland weakens
the ridge over the western Atlc. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the
AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03S31W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S44W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is present from 02S and 07S between 26W and 36W
and S of a line from 00N36W and 00N50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A nearly stationary front extends from the Florida Keys near
25N81W to near Pensacola Florida. This boundary remains void of
deep convection as deep layer ridging over the Gulf continues to
suppress convection. Deep low pressure over interior Mexico has
tightened the pressure gradient over the western Gulf. Fresh to
strong SE winds are expected over most of the western gulf
tonight and Wed as the pressure gradient tightens. Convergent
low-level winds to the SE of a slow moving cold front currently
inland over S Texas is presently producing broken low clouds along
the coast of Texas.

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Thu morning and eventually
reach from near Cross City, Florida to the Bay of Campeche early
on Sat. The front will then stall from South Florida to the Bay of
Campeche Sat night. Gale force winds are possible over the waters
near Tampico and Veracruz Fri evening and Sat. The front will
exit the SE Gulf on Sun morning and leave a surface trough over
the SW gulf with strong to near gale force winds prevailing to the
W of the trough axis through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trade winds continue over the Caribbean Sea. The
strongest winds focusing along the coast of Colombia. Shower
coverage over this area remains minimal as strong upper-level
subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea and Central America continues
to suppress convection.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades
over much of the central Caribbean through Sun night, with gale
force winds expected near the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu
night. Strong winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of Honduras
and Belize adjacent waters tonight through Fri night. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh trades will continue across the remainder of the
basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves SW from the central Atlantic near 32N55W to
25N61W to 23N75W, then continues as a stationary front to the
Florida Keys near 25N81W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is occurring along and up to 60 nm E of the front
between 25N and 27N. Scattered moderate convection is found
elsewhere along and up to 150 nm E of the front N of 23N. A
surface trough precedes the front from 27N58W to 20N61W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen along
and up to 60 nm E of the trough. A 1040 mb high centered NE of the
Azores near 42N21W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level
trough is over the W Atlantic supporting the surface front. A
small upper level low is over the E Atlantic near 32N42W is
generating moderate to fresh trades over the tropical N Atlc
between 25W and 45W.

Over the W Atlantic, the cold front will shift SSE while
weakening through Thu morning. High pressure following in the wake
of the front will prevail through Sat. A new cold front will
enter the waters NW of the Bahamas by Sat morning. The front will
stall from near 31N70W to near Palm Beach, Florida Sat night. The
front will move again on Sun morning and extend from 31N65W to
27N75W on Sun night.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net