[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds are forecast to start on 14/0000 UTC along
the coast of Colombia. Sea heights will range between 08 to 11
feet. The gale is forecast to end on 14/1200 UTC. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 00N24W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 01N-07S between 30W-40W, and from 06N-04S
between 40W-48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from the Straits of Florida from 24N80W
to the E Gulf of Mexico near 28N85W. A warm front continued to SE
Louisiana near 30N89W. The fronts are void of convection. The
remainder of the Gulf has 15-20 kt SE return flow. A cold front is
inland over S Texas that is presently producing broken low clouds
along the coast of Texas. Furthermore, coastal fog persists along
the Texas and Louisiana coasts. In the upper levels, a ridge is
over the Gulf with axis along 85W. Upper level moisture is over
the N Gulf N of 28N. The remainder of the Gulf has strong
subsidence.

High pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through Thu.
A cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Thu morning and reach from
near Cross City, Florida to the Bay of Campeche early on Sat. The
front will then stall from South Florida to the Bay of Campeche
Sat night. Gale force winds are possible over the waters near
Tampico and Veracruz Fri evening through Sat. The front will exit
the SE Gulf on Sun morning leaving a surface trough over the SW
gulf with strong to near gale force winds prevailing through Sun
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of Colombia and weakest winds over the
Leeward Islands. Passing showers are moving W with the tradewinds
mainly S of Puerto Rico,and along the S coast of Hispaniola.
Similar showers are over Honduras, Nicaragua, and W Panama. In the
upper levels, strong subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea and
Central America suppressing convection.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades
over much of the central Caribbean through Sun night, with gale
force winds expected near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to
strong winds are also expected over the Gulf of Honduras and
Belize adjacent waters tonight and Thu night. Otherwise, moderate
to fresh trades will continue across the remainder of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N58W to 24N66W to
the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 180 nm E of the front E of 65W. A surface trough is over
the central Atlantic from 31N48W to 25N50W. A 1042 mb high is over
the E Atlantic near 42N22W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper
level trough is over the W Atlantic supporting the surface front.
A small upper level low is over the E Atlantic near 32N42W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the center.

Over the W Atlantic, the cold front will shift south-southeast
while weakening through early Thu. High pressure building in the
wake of the front will prevail through Sat. A new cold front will
enter the NW waters Sat morning. The front will stall from near
31N70W to near Palm Beach, Florida Sat night. The front will
transition back to a cold front on Sun morning and extend from
31N65W to 27N75W on Sun night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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