[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Minimal NE gale-force winds are expected to continue pulsing at
night along the coast of Colombia through sunrise this morning
and again tonight. Corresponding sea heights when winds are
highest will range between 8 to 11 feet. A respite in the gales is
expected Fri and Sat as low pres moving E from the United States
mainland weakens the ridge over the western Atlc. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico late this morning,
then move SE across the Gulf through early Sat. Behind the front,
gale force winds are forecast to develop over the waters near
Tampico and Veracruz late Friday and last through early Saturday.
Seas of 10 to 12 feet are expected over portions of the SW Gulf of
Mexico during that time. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 04S31W to the
coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is present from 07S to the Equator between
26W-48W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen elsewhere
from 07S-01N between 18W-51W, and from 00N-05N between 15W-29W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layer ridging covers the eastern Gulf, while upper-level
ridging covering the southern Gulf. A dissipating stationary front
was analyzed over the eastern Gulf at 0000 UTC, but this front has
since dissipated. No significant precipitation is noted over the
Gulf at this time. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh SE winds over
most of the Gulf of Mexico, with strong winds in the south-central
Gulf. Broken low clouds cover portions of the NW Gulf off of Texas
and Louisiana with visibilities reported in the 2 to 5 mile range.

High pressure will prevail over the eastern Gulf through today.
The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf late this morning, and
reach from near Cross City Florida to the Bay of Campeche early on
Sat. The front will then stall from South Florida to the Bay of
Campeche by Sat night. Gale force winds are expected late Fri and
early Sat in the SW Gulf. See section above for details. The front
will exit the SE Gulf on Sun morning leaving a surface trough over
the SW Gulf with strong to near gale force winds prevailing
through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trade winds continue over much the Caribbean Sea,
as shown by a recent ASCAT pass, with moderate winds over portions
of the NE and NW Caribbean. The strongest winds are focusing
along the coast of Colombia, with another area of 25-30 kt winds
in the Gulf of Honduras. Water vapor loops from GOES-16 show very
dry air over the southern and western Caribbean. Strong subsidence
is over the western Caribbean due to strong mid-upper level
ridging. Mid-upper level troughing covers the E Caribbean E of
70W. In the NE Caribbean where the air is slightly more moist,
isolated showers are seen near Puerto Rico and the waters N of 17N
between 65W-68W.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades
over much of the central Caribbean through Sun night, with gale
force winds expected to pulse near the coast of Colombia at night
through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected to
pulse over the Gulf of Honduras and Belize adjacent waters tonight
and Thu night. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the
remainder of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves SW from the central Atlantic near 32N54W to
24N62W to 23N72W, then continues as a stationary front to 23N78W.
A surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front from 27N57W to
22N59W. A mid-upper level trough axis extends from 31N58W to the
northern Leeward Islands. These features are enhancing scattered
moderate convection along and well SE of the cold front, N of 20N
between 49W-62W. Farther south, another surface trough is analyzed
from 14N55W to 19N51W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
seen near the northern end of the trough from 19N-21N between 48W-
52W. A strong 1040 mb high centered NE of the Azores near 42N21W
is resulting in fresh to strong trades over portions of the
subtropical and tropical eastern Atlantic between the coast of
Africa and 40W.

The cold front over the W Atlantic will shift south-southeast
while weakening through this morning. High pressure building in
the wake of the front will prevail through Sat. A new cold front
will enter the NW waters by Sat morning. The front will stall from
near 31N70W to near Palm Beach Florida Sat night. The front will
move again on Sun morning and extend from 31N65W to 27N75W on Sun
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net