[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia through
sunrise today and again on Wed night. Sea heights will range
between 9 to 12 feet while the gales are in progress. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...Texas Nearshore Waters Gale Warning...

Southerly return flow of 20-30 kt with frequent gusts to gale
force is forecast to last until 0900 UTC this morning within 60 nm
of the coast of southern Texas from Baffin Bay to the mouth of
the Rio Grande River. Please see the Coastal Waters Forecast from
NWS Brownsville for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Liberia near
06N11W to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to 02S26W to the
coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 07S-04N, between the coast of South America and a line
extending from 06S30W to 04N41W. Scattered moderate convection is
also noted from 00N-03N between 20W-27W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC, a weak frontal boundary crosses the Gulf of
Mexico from near Naples Florida to 27N88W to near Lake Charles
Louisiana. No significant shower activity is noted near the front
or anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Broad deep-layer ridging is
suppressing convection over the basin. Low pressure over interior
northern Mexico is producing a tight pressure gradient over the
western Gulf. An ASCAT pass from 13/0254 UTC shows fresh to strong
SE winds off the coast of Texas. Fresh to near gale force SE
winds are expected over most of the western Gulf today.

High pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through Thu. A
cold front will come off the Louisiana and Texas coasts Thu. The
front will reach from near Pensacola Florida to the Bay of
Campeche by Fri morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
follow the front, increasing to gale force over the waters near
Tampico and Veracruz Fri evening through Sat evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh trades cover much of the central Caribbean, with strong
trades in the south-central Caribbean S of 14N. Moderate to
locally fresh trades are in the E Caribbean E of 67W, and moderate
trades are over much of the NW Caribbean, except for fresh over
the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly fair weather is in progress over the
basin, aside from isolated showers near Puerto Rico and near
Trinidad.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades
over much of the central Caribbean through Sat night, with gale
force winds expected at night near the coast of Colombia through
tonight. Fresh to strong winds are also expected over the Gulf of
Honduras and Belize adjacent waters tonight and Thu night.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue across the
remainder of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves WSW over the forecast waters from near 32N61W
to 28N69W to near Ft Lauderdale Florida. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the front, mainly E of
68W. Isolated showers are near the front between 68W-74W. The cold
front will push SE across the basin through this morning. High
pressure will build over the region Wed and Thu, then prevail
through Sat. A new cold front will enter the NW waters Sat morning
and reach from 31N72W to Palm Beach Florida by Sat night.

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N50W to 26N44W. Isolated
showers are within 120 nm of the trough. An upper-level low near
30N42W is enhancing scattered moderate convection N of 28N between
37W-44W. Otherwise, a 1041 mb high pressure centered N of the
Azores near 43N25W is generating fresh trades over the tropical N
Atlc between 25W and 45W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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