[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131058
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia through
1200 UTC today and again tonight. Sea heights will range between
10 to 13 feet while the gales are in progress. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Liberia near
06N11W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to 02S26W to the
coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is seen from 06S-03S between 34W-38W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 07S-05N between the coast
of South America and a line extending from 07S27W 04S27W 05N42W.
Scattered moderate convection is also seen from 00N-03N between
18W-28W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak frontal boundary extends as a stationary front from South
Florida near 26N81W to 27N85W, continuing NW as a warm front to
28N89W to the W end of Lake Pontchartrain near 30N90.5W to central
Arkansas to SW Oklahoma. No significant shower activity is noted
near the front or anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico, although
isolated showers are seen in the Florida Straits. Broad deep-
layer ridging is suppressing convection over the basin. A strong
low pressure system extending from the Great Plains to northern
Mexico is producing a tight pressure gradient over the western
half of the Gulf. Surface observations indicate strong to locally
near gale SE winds are occurring. These winds should continue
through the morning hours over portions of the western Gulf.

The low pressure system mentioned in the paragraph above extends a
cold front across central Texas and northern Mexico. A squall line
producing strong to severe thunderstorms is ahead of the front
moving E. The line should be in a weaker state by early this
afternoon, when some showers and thunderstorms could spread over
the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front currently
over central Texas should weaken as it becomes stationary over E
Texas. Another cold front approaching from the west will come off
the Louisiana and Texas coasts Thu. The front will reach from near
Pensacola Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Fri morning. Fresh to
strong northerly winds will follow the front, increasing to gale
force over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz Fri evening
through Sat evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh trades cover much of the central Caribbean, with strong
trades in the south-central Caribbean S of 14N. Moderate to
locally fresh trades are in the E Caribbean E of 67W, and moderate
trades are over much of the NW Caribbean, except for fresh over
the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly fair weather is in progress over the
basin, aside from isolated showers near Puerto Rico, Trinidad and
the ABC Islands.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades
over much of the central Caribbean through Sat night, with gale
force winds expected near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to
strong winds are also expected over the Gulf of Honduras and
Belize adjacent waters tonight and Thu night. Otherwise, moderate
to fresh trades will continue across the remainder of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the W Atlantic enter the forecast waters near
32N59W to 26N67W to near Miami Florida, where it becomes a weak
stationary front. The weak front continues NW into the Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 90 nm of the
front, mainly E of 66W and N of 25N. Isolated showers are
elsewhere near the front, including between Andros Island and the
upper Florida Keys. The cold front will shift southward while
weakening through Fri. High pressure building in the wake of the
front will prevail through Sat. A new cold front will enter the NW
waters Sat. The front will stall from near 31N75W to Central
Florida Sat night.

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N50W to 26N45W. Isolated
showers are within 120 nm of the trough. An upper-level low is
weakening near 31N42W and will soon move north of the area. It is
enhancing scattered moderate convection N of 30N between 38W-43W.
Otherwise, a 1041 mb high pressure centered N of the Azores near
42N24W is generating fresh trades over the tropical N Atlc
between 25W and 45W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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