[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The NE gale-force winds will pulse along the N coast of Colombia
tonight and Wed night. Sea heights will range between 9 to 12 feet
while the gales are in progress. A respite in the gales is
expected through Sat as low pres moving E from the United States
mainland weakens the ridge over the western Atlc. High pres
rebuilding over the western Atlantic could bring gales back to the
coast of Colombia Sat night. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the
AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Liberia near
06N11W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 02S27W to the
coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 04S to 02S between 18W and 22W and within 60 nm either
side of a line from 05S30W to 02N42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary crosses the Gulf of Mexico from near Tampa
Florida to near Houston Texas. Broad deep-layer ridging is
suppressing convection over the basin. Deepening low pressure over
interior Mexico is tightening the pressure gradient over the
western Gulf. Fresh to near gale force SE winds are expected over
most of the western gulf tonight and Wed as the pressure gradient
tightens. The strengthening winds have dispersed the patchy dense
fog observed earlier today along the Texas coast.

The high pressure is expected to prevail over the forecast waters
through Thu, then a cold front will push SE from the Texas and
Louisiana coasts Thu. The front will reach from near Pensacola
Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Fri morning. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will follow the front, increasing to gale force
over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz Fri evening through Sat
evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trades cover much of the central Caribbean, with
fresh trades noted over the E Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras.
Moderate winds are observed elsewhere in the NW Caribbean. Mainly
fair weather is in progress over the basin as strong upper-level
convergence takes place between an upper-level trough over the
eastern Caribbean and ridging extending ESE from the Gulf of
Mexico.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades
over much of the central Caribbean through Sat night, with gale
force winds expected at night near the coast of Colombia through
Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected over the Gulf
of Honduras and Belize adjacent waters Wed and Thu night.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades continue across the remainder
of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves WSW over the forecast waters from near 32N64W
to near Ft Pierce Florida. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found along and up to 30 nm S of the front N of
28N. The cold front will push SE across the waters N of 23N
through Wed morning. High pressure will build over the region Wed
and Thu, then prevail through Sat. A new cold front will enter the
NW waters Sat morning and reach from 31N72W to Palm Beach Florida
Sat night.

A surface trough curves S from 30N46W through a 1015 mb low
centered over the central Atlantic near 28N45W to 22N45W. This low
extends upward through the mid and upper-levels of the
troposphere. Scattered moderate convection is present in the E
quadrant of the low up to 300 nm. Otherwise, 1040 mb high pressure
centered N of the Azores near 44N28W is generating moderate
trades over the tropical N Atlc between 25W and 45W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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