[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051731
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1231 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

Gale force N winds over the west-central Gulf of Mexico will be
migrating toward the southwest Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The
gales over the SW Gulf will then continue through tonight. Seas
are expected to peak to around 10-13 ft today in the southwest
Gulf of Mexico. These winds are forecast to diminish to strong
winds on Wednesday, with associated seas slowly subsiding. Please
refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO header FZNT02 KNHC MIAHSFAT2 or
at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from NW Liberia near 07N11W to 03N18W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N24W to 02S34W to the
coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Numerous moderate showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm north and 90 nm
south of the ITCZ between 30W and the coast of South America.
Scattered showers are seen elsewhere within 240 nm of the ITCZ
from 25W to the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from southern Florida near 26N80W to
24.5N85W, then continues as a stationary front to 24N89W to
22N94W to the coast of Mexico near 18N94W. A pre-frontal trough
extends from 21N92W to 18N93W. Another surface trough extends from
23N89W to 19N91W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen
from 24N-26N between 82W-86W. Scattered showers are also over
Florida and elsewhere near the front and troughs. A secondary
push of cold air is analyzed as a surface trough across the
Florida Peninsula from Cape Canaveral to Tampa Bay to 26N85W.
North of the front, fresh winds are in the eastern Gulf with
strong winds in the western Gulf, except for gale force winds
over portions of the west-central and southwest Gulf. See section
above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the SW Gulf
waters.

The front will exit the far SE Gulf waters late tonight into
early Wed. Strong high pressure will build across the area in the
wake of the front through Thu. Strong northerly winds will
gradually diminish through late Wed night. The high pressure over
the area will shift east of the region by late Fri night, with
fresh to locally strong return flow setting up over much of the
western and central waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite imagery shows scattered low-topped showers moving
westward over the eastern Caribbean N of 13N and E of 73W. A
recent ASCAT pass shows that fresh trades cover most of the
eastern and central portion of the basin.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds will remain across the south
central Caribbean Sea through Wed. Easterly swell will continue
across tropical Atlantic waters through Wed. A cold front will
move over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Wed. It will become
stationary from the Windward passage to eastern Honduras on Thu,
then weaken on Thu night. Gale force winds are possible near the
coast of Colombia during the overnight hours from Thu through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the west Atlantic from 32N68W to South
Florida near 26N80W to 24.5N85W. A secondary push of cold air is
depicted by a surface trough from 31N78W to Cape Canaveral Florida
to Tampa Bay. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
along and north of the front, east of Florida and over Florida.
Surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 32N42W. A cold
front extends from 31N25W to 28N33W to 28N42W. Isolated showers
are possible near the front.

The cold front over the west Atlantic will move eastward and
become stationary from near 23N65W to the Windward Passage on Thu.
The front will then weaken and dissipate by late Fri night as
high pressure behind it shifts eastward through Sat night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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