[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
547 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

The pressure gradient has tighten over the SW Gulf of Mexico in
the wake of a cold front that is currently pushing east-southeast
across the basin. Gale force winds were noted in scatterometer
data over sections of the SW Gulf of Mexico south of 22N and west
of 95W. Seas are expected to peak to around 11-13 ft in this
area. These winds are forecast to diminish to strong winds on
Wednesday, with associated seas slowly subsiding. Please refer the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO header FZNT02 KNHC MIAHSFAT2 or at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 06N10W to
03N17W, where recent scatterometer data indicated the ITCZ begins
and continues to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 105 nm north and south of the ITCZ
mainly west of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the section above for details about the Gale
Warning currently in effect for the SW Gulf waters.

A cold front extends across southwest Florida near 26N81W and
continues southwest to 23N94W, to the coast of Mexico near
18N94W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 22N92W to 19N93W.
Scattered showers are possible along the trough and the front. A
secondary push of cold air has been analyzed as a surface trough
across the Florida Peninsula. The trough extends along 29N between
80W-83W. To the SW, a thermal trough extends across the Yucatan
Channel along 89W with no convection. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh northerly winds in the wake of the front, while
gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted ahead of the front
over the southern half of the basin.

The front will continue to move across the remainder of the Gulf
and SE of the area through Wednesday. Strong winds and high seas
will the front, with gale conditions expected near Veracruz
Mexico continuing today. High pressure will build over the Gulf
behind the front and prevail through the rest of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite imagery shows scattered low-topped showers moving
westward with the moderate to fresh trades across the northern
half of the basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted over some sections of Colombia, reaching its adjacent
waters mainly south of 11N. Fresh northeast to east winds are
noted over the south-central Caribbean.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds will prevail across the
south-central Caribbean through mid-week. A cold front will move
into the NW Caribbean on Wednesday. The front will stall from the
Windward passage to E Honduras Thursday, then weaken by Thursday
night. Gale-force winds are possible near the coast of Colombia
by the end of the week and the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has emerged off the southeastern United States coast,
and extends from a 984 mb low north of our area. The front extends
from 31N70W to 27N80W. Scattered showers are along the front.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 33N45W. A frontal
boundary extends along 30N, analyzed as a cold front between 28W-
39W, and as a stationary front from that point to 48W.

Satellite imagery, in various enhancements, depict Saharan dust
covering much of the region north of 10N east of 40W.

The cold front over the west Atlantic will shift eastward and
stall from 23N65W to the Windward passage on Thursday, then weaken
and dissipate by Friday evening. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net