[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

Gale force N to NW winds over the west-central Gulf of Mexico
will be migrating toward the southwest Gulf of Mexico this
afternoon. The gales over the SW Gulf will then continue through
tonight. Seas are expected to peak to around 10-13 ft today in the
southwest Gulf of Mexico. These gale force winds are forecast to
diminish to strong winds on Wed, with associated seas slowly
subsiding. Please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO header FZNT02 KNHC
MIAHSFAT2 or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from NW Liberia near 06N11W to 02N17W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near
01S45W. Numerous moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted within 180 nm to north and 200 nm to the south of the ITCZ
between 28W and the coast of South America near 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from southern Florida near 25N81W to
23N90W, then to the coast of Mexico near 18N93W. A pre-frontal
trough extends from 20N92W to 18N92W. Another surface trough
extends from 20N94W to 21N96W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen from 22N-24N between 80W-85W. Scattered
showers are also over Florida and elsewhere near the front and
troughs. North of the front, fresh winds are in the eastern Gulf
with strong winds in the east central Gulf, except for gale force
winds over portions of the west-central and southwest Gulf. See
section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the SW
Gulf waters.

The stationary front extends from S Florida to Bay of Campeche will
begin moving again shortly and should exit the SE Gulf waters early
Wed. Strong high pressure will build across the area in the wake
of the front through Thu. Minimal gale force northwest to north
winds are occurring over a small area of the SW Gulf but should
diminish to strong winds early Wed. Strong northerly winds behind
the front will gradually diminish through late Wed night. The high
pressure over the area will shift to east of the region by late
Fri night, with fresh to locally strong return flow setting up
over much of the western and central waters. A new, but weaker,
cold front is anticipated to reach the NW Gulf on Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite imagery shows scattered low-topped showers moving
westward over the eastern Caribbean N of 13N and E of 65W.

A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel tonight and then
gradually dissipate over the NW Caribbean on Thu. Building high
pressure behind the front near Bermuda will accentuate the
pressure gradient over the Caribbean, enhancing the tradewinds Thu
night through at least Sun night. On those evenings, NE gales are
possible off of the coast of Colombia. No large long-period swell
will impact the tropical N Atlantic for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the west Atlantic from a 1011 mb low
pressure near 32N71W to South Florida near 26N79W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are 90 nm southeast of the
front. Surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of
the basin, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 31N42W. A
cold front extends from 31N18W to 27N29W to 27N38W then
transitions to a stationary front to 28N41W. Scattered showers
are possible near the front.

A stationary front extending from from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas
and to South Florida will begin moving eastward as a cold front
and reach from near 23N65W to the Windward Passage on Thu. The
front will then weaken and dissipate by late Fri night as high
pressure behind it shifts eastward through Sat night. Quiescent
conditions will prevail on Sat through at least Sun night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net