[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and lower
pressure in Colombia will contribute to gale force winds in the
Gulf of Venezuela and off of the Colombian coast through early
Sunday before diminishing during the day. Expect gale-force NE to
E winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 to 14 feet, and less than
8 feet in the Gulf of Venezuela. The wind speeds will return to
gale-force Monday morning. Please, read the Atlantic Ocean High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W from 18N southward,
moving W at 10-15kt. This wave has little surface component,
however, the wave is noticeable in the wave diagnostics and a
moisture maximum is noted in the TPW. Scattered moderate isolated
strong thunderstorms are seen from 05N to 10N between the coast
of Africa and 22W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W from 15N southward,
moving W at 15-20kt. Isolated moderate convection are within 180
nm on either side of the tropical wave from 15N southward.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W from 21
southward, moving 10-15 kt. Although the tropical wave is moving
through the area of an upper level trough, no significant deep
convective is apparent.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau, near 10N15W to 06N22W. The ITCZ is along 06N22W to 04N40W
to 06N750W. Excluding convection near the tropical waves,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along the
boundary extending 90 nm north of the monsoon trough and from 04N
to 06N between 35W-45W in the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough prevails across the western Gulf. Upper
level southerly flow continues to bring tropical moisture into
the central and eastern Gulf enhancing scattered moderate
convection. A surface trough is along 89W/90W from 24N northward.
Scattered moderate convection is seen moving offshore the Yucatan
Peninsula, with more scattered showers along the west coast of FL
and scattered to moderate convection along the Florida Straits is
slowly moving north of the Florida Keys and South Florida.

A weak trough over the north central Gulf will dissipate by early
this evening as it drifts into the NW Gulf. Weak high pressure
will build over the NE Gulf through early next week. Farther
south, a trough will develop each afternoon over the Yucatan
Peninsula and move offshore to across the Bay of Campeche each
evening, bringing fresh to locally strong northeast winds to the
eastern Bay of Campeche during the evening hours. Ample deep
moisture will continue to spread from the northwestward Caribbean
toward the southern and SW Gulf through at least Tue, leading to
an increase of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may
contain strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and rough seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves
currently moving across the Caribbean.

Isolated moderate to locally strong showers and thunderstorms
are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 14N northward
from 81W westward. This part of the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea
is at the eastern edge of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is
related to the upper level trough that is in the Gulf of Mexico.
In addition, scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection
is noted along the coast of Colombia, Panama as the Pacific
monsoon trough extends across the region from a 1009 mb low
centered in Colombia. The central and eastern Caribbean is under
fair weather. ASCAT data indicates fresh to strong easterly trades
dominate the basin.

A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and low
pressure over northern Colombia will support minimal gale force
winds again tonight through the early morning hours just offshore
Colombia, with resultant high seas continuing through Sun night
before slowly subsiding today and returning Monday. This gradient
will also support strong to near gale force winds over much of
the central and SW Caribbean through the period, with moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the NW Caribbean will continue to spread northwestern toward the
southern Gulf of Mexico through late tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves
currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

Upper-level diffluence prevails across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and west Atlantic enhancing scattered moderate convection west of
75W, affecting the northern Bahamas and adjacent waters. To the
east, a cold front extends along 30N between 51W-63W enhancing
convection north of 28N between 52W-57W. A second cold front
extends east of the first front from 31N37W to 28N48W. A 1026 mb
surface high is centered near 34N25W. Light to gentle tradewinds
prevail north of 18N, while moderate to strong winds are noted
south of 21N.

The Bermuda high will build across the waters and will support
moderate to fresh breezes from Hispaniola to Cay Sal through this
evening, pulsing to strong near the approaches to the Windward
Passage tonight. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate
seas will continue elsewhere through the period. Ample
atmospheric moisture over the western waters including waters
around the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms through Sun. Some of this activity may
be accompanied by locally strong gusty winds and rough seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net