[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
132 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and lower
pressure in Colombia will contribute to gale force winds over the
Gulf of Venezuela and off of the Colombian coast tonight. Expect
sea heights ranging from 10 to 14 feet near Colombia, and less
than 8 feet in the Gulf of Venezuela. Please, read the Atlantic
Ocean High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W from
01N-15N, moving W at 10-15kt. This wave has little surface
component, however, the wave is noticeable in the wave model diagnostics
and TPW imagery. Scattered showers are noted from 05N-10N between
the coast of Africa and 23W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 56W
from 15N southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered showers
are within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 11N
southward.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 67W
from 20N southward, moving 10-15 kt. Dry air and subsidence
prevails in the wave's environment inhibiting convection at this
time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa along 19N to 18W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N25W to 07N53W. Excluding convection near
the tropical waves, scattered showers are noted near the ITCZ
between 32W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough prevails across the western Gulf. Upper
level southerly flow continues to bring tropical moisture into
the central and eastern Gulf enhancing scattered moderate
convection. A surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche
from 22N89W to 18N94W with scattered showers. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is noted over the Yucatan Channel
reaching the south central portion of the basin. This activity
will continue moving northward through this evening.

Weak high pressure will build over the NE Gulf through early next
week. To the south, a trough will develop each afternoon over the
Yucatan Peninsula and move offshore to across the Bay of Campeche
each evening, bringing fresh to locally strong northeast winds to
the eastern Bay of Campeche during the evening hours. Ample deep
moisture will continue to spread from the northwestward Caribbean
toward the southern and SW Gulf through at least Tue, leading to
an increase of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may
contain strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and rough seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the tropical wave
currently moving across the Caribbean.

An area of scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails
across the far west Caribbean north of 16N and west of 83W.
The NW corner of the basin is at the eastern edge of upper-level
cyclonic wind flow, that is related to the upper level trough that
is in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, scattered showers are
noted along the monsoon trough affecting the coast of Colombia and
Panama. Fair weather prevails across the central and eastern
Caribbean. Latest ASCAT data indicates fresh to strong easterly
trades dominate the basin.

A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and low
pressure over northern Colombia will support minimal gale force
winds again tonight through the early morning hours just offshore
Colombia, with resultant high seas continuing through Sun night
before slowly subsiding today and returning Monday. This gradient
will also support strong to near gale force winds over much of
the central and SW Caribbean through the period, with moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the NW Caribbean will continue to spread northwestern toward the
southern Gulf of Mexico through late tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves
currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

Upper-level diffluence prevails across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and west Atlantic enhancing scattered moderate convection west of
70W, affecting the northern Bahamas and adjacent waters. A
surface trough is analyzed from 31N75W to 27N80W. To the east, a
cold front extends from 31N51W to 29N58W with scattered showers.
A stationary front extends from 31N37W to 26N43W. Surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb
high centered near 25N59W. Light to gentle tradewinds prevail
north of 20N, while moderate to strong winds are noted south of
20N.

A relatively weak high pressure ridge will remain along 23N
before shifting northward to 26N Wed night through Thu night. A
weak cold front will move across the waters north of 27N on Mon,
then stall from near 29N65W to the central Bahamas Tue afternoon.
A weak pressure pattern will persist north of 22N by mid week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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