[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and lower
pressure in Colombia will contribute to gale force east winds
in the Gulf of Venezuela and off of the Colombian coast this
evening and tonight. Expect gale-force NE to E winds, and sea
heights ranging from 10 to 14 feet, from 11N to 13N between 70W
and 75W. The wind speeds will slow down to less than gale-force
on Sunday morning. Please, read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10-15kt. This wave has little surface component,
however a moisture maximum is noticeable in the TPW and the 700
mb wave diagnostics suggests this location. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong thunderstorms are near the cost of Guinea from
05N to 13N between Africa and 24W. Scattered to numerous strong
rainshowers are in Guinea from 11W westward to the coast.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10-15kt. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 90
nm on either side of the tropical wave from 11N southward.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 60W from 21
southward. This tropical wave is moving through the area of an
upper level trough. No significant deep convective precipitation
is apparent.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical is along 83W from 19N nearby
precipitation is to the west of the tropical wave, and at the
eastern edge of an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a
trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
and Guinea-Bissau, near 11N15W to 06N22W. The ITCZ is along
06N22W to 04N40W to 06N50W. Excluding convection near the
tropical waves, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are seen along the boundary extending 90 nm north of the monsoon
trough. and along the ITCZ from 04N to 06N between 35W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico.
An upper level trough is in the coastal plains from south Texas
into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A surface
trough is along 89W/90W from 24N northward. Scattered moderate
convection is seen moving offshore the Yucatan Peninsula, with
more scattered showers east of Pensacola, and scattered to
moderate convection along the Florida Straits is slowly moving
north of the Cuba into the Florida Keys.

A weak trough over the north central Gulf will dissipate through
tonight as it drifts into the NW Gulf. Weak high pressure will
build over the NE Gulf through early next week. Farther south, a
trough will develop each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula and
move offshore to across the Bay of Campeche each evening, bringing
fresh to locally strong northeast winds to the eastern Bay of
Campeche during the evening hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 14N northward from 81W
westward. This part of the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea is at
the eastern edge of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is
related to the upper level trough that is in the Gulf of Mexico.

A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and low
pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force tonight
just offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, and again Sun
night just offshore Colombia, with resultant high seas continuing
through Sun night before slowly subsiding beginning on Mon. This
gradient will also support strong to near gale force winds over
much of the central and SW Caribbean through at least Thu night,
with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves
currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

Upper-level diffluence prevails across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and west Atlantic enhancing scattered moderate convection west of
75W, affecting the northern Bahamas and adjacent waters. To the
east, a cold front extends along 30N between 51W-63W enhancing
convection north of 28N between 52W-57W. A second cold front
extends east of the first front from 31N37W to 28N48W. A 1026 mb
surface high is centered near 34N25W. Light to gentle tradewinds
prevail north of 18N, while moderate to strong winds are noted
south of 21N.

The Bermuda high will build across the waters and will support
moderate to fresh breezes from Hispaniola to Cay Sal through this
evening, pulsing to strong near the approaches to the Windward
Passage tonight. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate
seas will continue elsewhere through the period. Ample
atmospheric moisture over the western waters including waters
around the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms through Sun. Some of this activity may
be accompanied by locally strong gusty winds and rough seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
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