[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281713
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds are
continuing. The wind speeds are forecast to slow down at the
start of the afternoon today, and then increase in speed to gale-
force, again, tonight. Expect the gale-force wind speeds to be
present, tonight, from 10N to 11N between 70W and 76W, along the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. The sea heights
will range from 10 feet to 14 feet. Please, read the Atlantic
Ocean High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 13N
southward. Scattered strong rainshowers are from 05N to 06N
between 20W and 22W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are along the coast of Africa from 04N to 08N
between 10W and 14W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 03N
to 10N between 10W and 20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W from 16N
southward. The tropical wave is moving toward the area of an
upper level trough. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 09N to 14N between 58W and 64W. Widely
scattered moderate rainshowers are from 09N to 15N between 52W
and 58W.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W, from the
border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic southward. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent with this
tropical wave.

A tropical wave is along 89W, from 16N in southern Belize
southward, beyond El Salvador southward. No significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent with this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of SW
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W, to 07N28W. The ITCZ is
along 06N31W 05N35W 06N42W 05N46W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N to 10N between 32W and
40W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from
60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the upper Texas Gulf coast
toward the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 23N southward from 92W westward to the
coast of Mexico.

A surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle to 23N86W in
the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward.

A weak trough over the northeast Gulf will move
westward across the north central Gulf through Sat and into the
northwest Gulf Sun. Another trough will move off the Yucatan
Peninsula late tonight bringing fresh to strong northeast winds
to the eastern Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near
32N78W, across Cuba, and into Honduras and Nicaragua. Isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea to the west of the
line that runs from the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Uraba of
Colombia.

An upper level trough is along 27N46W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
20N57W, to 16N64W in the NE part of the Caribbean Sea, to the
central coastal sections of Venezuela. An Atlantic Ocean
tropical wave is along 53W/54W from 16N southward. The tropical
wave is moving toward the area of the upper level trough. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 09N
to 14N between 58W and 64W.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N, from 75W in Colombia beyond
86W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered to numerous
strong rainshowers are in the coastal waters of Colombia and
Panama, from 03N northward from 81W eastward.

A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high
and low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force
winds tonight and Sat night off Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. The pattern will also support strong to near gale
force winds over much of the central and SW Caribbean through Tue
night, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near
32N78W, across Cuba, and into Honduras and Nicaragua. A surface
trough is along 31N73W 27N77W, to Andros Island in the Bahamas,
to the coast of Cuba along 76W/77W. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are in the Bahamas from 22N to 26N between 76W and
80W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from Cuba and
Hispaniola northward from 70W westward.

A surface trough is along 31N45W 27N57W. A second surface trough
passes through 32N62W to 31N64W. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate rainshowers from 24N northward between 35W and 70W.

The current Bahamas surface trough will drift westward into
South Florida late today. The Bermuda high will build in its
wake, and it will support moderate to fresh breezes from
Hispaniola to Cay Sal through Saturday, pulsing to strong near
the approaches to the Windward Passage tonight. Gentle to
moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist
elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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