[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
737 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between
the Bermuda high and the Colombia low will contribute to cause
gale force E winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and off of the
Colombia coast this evening. The wind speeds are forecast to
diminish slightly on Sat morning and then again increase to gale
force Sat night. The winds should drop below gale force Sun
morning and remain that way for the next few days. Peak seas will
reach to 15 feet both tonight and Sat night. Please, read the
Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave was relocated westward today to
near 43W from 15N southward. The system has little surface
component, though is identifiable through 700 mb trough
diagnostics. No significant showers or thunderstorms are seen in
association with this wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave located near 56W from about 10N
to 22N is moving westward at about 20 kt. The system has little
surface component, though is identifiable through 700 mb trough
diagnostics. The tropical wave is moving toward and interacting
with an upper level trough, helping to promote widely scattered
moderate showers and thunderstorms from 10N to 15N between 53W and
63W.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave located near 74W from Haiti
southward is moving westward at about 20 kt. The system has little
surface component, though is identifiable through 700 mb trough
diagnostics. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent with this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 14N17W to 08N28W. The ITCZ is along 08N28W to 03N51W into NE
Brazil. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are located
north of 05N and east of 15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is located over the central Gulf this
afternoon. This feature is interacting with a sharp upper-level
trough to produce widely scattered moderate showers and
thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered
moderate showers and thunderstorms are also present in the
southwestern Gulf. Away from thunderstorms, winds are quiet over
the Gulf.

The weak trough over the Gulf along 87W-88W will move westward
across the central Gulf through Sat and into the NW Gulf Sun.
Diurnal troughing will develop each afternoon over the Yucatan
Peninsula, moving into the Bay of Campeche each evening. The
trough will bring fresh to locally strong NE winds to the eastern
Bay of Campeche during the evening hours. No tropical cyclone
activity is expected during the next several days in the Gulf of
Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale warnings are in effect for off of the coast of Colombia and
the Gulf of Venezuela. See special features section for details.

ASCAT scatterometer winds earlier today indicated peak winds of
25-30 kt north of Colombia and the same over the Gulf of
Venezuela. The remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean
showed tradewinds of 15-25 kt with 10-20 kt observed in the
western Caribbean. A tropical wave just east of the Caribbean is
moving toward and interacting with an upper level trough, helping
to promote widely scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms
in the Windward Islands.

In addition to the gales, the strong pressure gradient between
the Bermuda high and low pressure over northern Colombia will also
support strong to near gale force winds over much of the central
and SW Caribbean through at least Tue night with moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere. No tropical cyclone activity is expected
for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is located over the NW Bahamas and is helping to
cause scattered moderate and isolated strong showers and
thunderstorms over the NW Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and the Florida
peninsula. A weak cold front extends from 31N43W to 28N50W where
it transitions to a trough that extends to 27N59W. Widely
scattered moderate showers are within about 60 nm of the
front/trough. Elsewhere the region is dominated by the Bermuda-
Azores high that extends east-west around along 32N. Tradewinds
are generally 10-20 kt south of 20N and weaker north of 20N.

The surface trough over the NW Bahamas will move west into South
Florida this evening. The Bermuda high will build in its wake and
will support moderate to fresh breezes from Hispaniola to Cay Sal
through Sat, pulsing to strong near the approaches to the Windward
Passage tonight and Sat night. Gentle to moderate breezes and
slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea
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