[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281050
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds occurring now
near the coast of Colombia will continue through 1500 UTC this
morning, then resume this evening around sunset in the Gulf of
Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia, continuing into Sat
morning. Gales are expected again Sat night in the same area. Seas
will range from 10 to 14 ft. Please refer to the Atlantic High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc along 29W from 03N-13N, moving W
around 25-30 kt. Very dry Saharan air prevails in the environment
of the wave north of 08N. Scattered showers are along the wave
axis south of 07N. Scattered moderate convection is seen west of
the wave axis along the ITCZ from 04N-07N between 32W-40W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc along 52W from 03N-16N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Enhanced moisture associated with this
tropical wave extends near the wave axis and well west of the wave
axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-12N between 51W-
61W. Enhanced showers and tstorms are likely for the Windward
Islands today and tonight.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70/71W from the Dominican
Republic to 10N, moving W around 20-25 kt. The wave is in a
strong shear environment and is being affected by dry Saharan air.
Only an isolated shower or two is seen along the wave axis within
60 nm of the south coast of Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 16N16W
to 08N26W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical wave from 06N31W to
07N50W. Aside from the convection mention above in the Tropical
Waves section, scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N-12N
between 12W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging from the surface to 700 mb prevails over the north-central
and northwest Gulf of Mexico. Weak upper-level troughing covers
much of the Gulf. A north-south oriented surface trough extends
from 31N86W to 26N85W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
between the surface trough and the west coast of Florida.
Additional scattered tstorms are seen from near Key West to just N
of the western tip of Cuba, with isolated tstorms in the Yucatan
Channel. Farther south, a surface trough is over the central Bay
of Campeche. Isolated showers and tstorms are south of 25N, west
of 89W.

The weak trough from 31N86W to 26N85W will move westward across
the central Gulf today, with little impact to winds and seas. A
second trough will move across Florida this morning and across the
eastern Gulf later today, then reach the NW part of the Gulf on
Sat before dissipating Sat night. A trough will again move off the
Yucatan Peninsula late tonight bringing fresh to strong northeast
winds to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a ridge will
prevail over the remainder of the area supporting gentle to
moderate winds through the period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale force winds are off the coast of Colombia. See special
features section for details. Latest ASCAT pass shows strong to
near gale force trades from 10N-16N between 70W-81W, while fresh
trades cover the E Caribbean. Dry Saharan air covers the E
Caribbean between 62W-70W. Broad upper troughing over the western
Caribbean along with some surface troughs just north of the basin
are inducing scattered showers and tstorms north of 19N and west
of 75W, including over the Yucatan Channel. Isolated showers and
tstorms are over the SW Caribbean south of 11N due to the East
Pacific monsoon trough.

A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and low pres
over northern Colombia will support strong to near gale force
winds over much of the central and SW Caribbean through Tue
night, with noctural gale force winds off Colombia and in the Gulf
of Venezuela through early Sun. Otherwise, trades will be mainly
moderate to fresh, except fresh to strong in the tropical N
Atlantic Fri through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough along 80W from 23N-28N is brining scattered
showers and tstorms to the vicinity of South Florida and adjacent
waters. This trough will move across South Florida this morning.
Another surface trough from 31N73W to Nassau Bahamas to just N of
eastern Cuba near 22N77W is bringing scattered showers and tstorms
to the Bahamas, eastern Cuba and the adjacent waters. The southern
part of this trough will track westward from the Bahamas toward S
Florida this evening through Sat night accompanied by scattered,
to numerous at times, showers and tstorms. Farther E, a surface
trough extends from 31N46W to 27N57W. Isolated showers accompany
the trough. Ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.

The pressure gradient on the SW side of the Bermuda high will
strengthen today through Sun, increasing east winds to moderate
speeds E of the Bahamas and to fresh southeast winds over the SW
part of the area. Fresh to strong winds are expected at night
north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage
through Sun night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net