[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds occurring now
near the coast of Colombia will continue through mid-late morning,
then resume this evening, continuing through Sat morning. Gales
are expected again Sat night in the same area. Seas will range
from 10 to 13 ft. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc along 27W from 04N-14N, moving W
around 25-30 kt. The northern part of the wave is being affected
by dry air and dust from a Saharan Air Layer outbreak. Scattered
moderate convection is seen along the southern part of the wave
from 03N-08N between 26W-31W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc along 50W from 03N-15N,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-
12N between 47W-55W.

A tropical wave moving through the Mona Passage extends its axis
from 20N67W to 10N69W, moving W around 20-25 kt. The wave is in a
strong shear environment and is being affected by Saharan dry
air, which is hindering convection at the time.

A tropical wave extends from the N coast of Honduras near 16N86W
southward into the East Pacific, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered
showers and tstorms extend 30 nm offshore the N coast of Honduras,
with another thunderstorm cluster extending over the extreme SW
Gulf of Honduras, S Belize, E Guatemala and W Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 14N17W
to 14N19W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical wave near 06N29W and
continues to 07N48W. Numerous moderate with embedded scattered
strong convection is seen within 150 nm of the coast of Africa
from 07N-12N, east of 17W. Scattered moderate convection is along
the ITCZ between 33W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging from the surface to 700 mb prevails over the north-central
and northwest Gulf of Mexico. Weak upper-level troughing covers
much of the Gulf. A north-south oriented surface trough is over
the eastern Gulf along 85W, extending from the central Florida
Panhandle southward to 25N. A broken line of scattered showers and
tstorms about 30 nm wide extends from 29N84W to 28N88W to
29.5N91W. The storms should weaken during the next couple of hours
as they continue to spread southward. Scattered showers and
tstorms are within 60 nm of the W coast of Florida from Tampa to
Key West. Farther south, a surface trough is over the eastern Bay
of Campeche, accompanied by gusty winds, shown in a recent ASCAT
pass. Scattered showers and tstorms are south of 22N and east of
94W, with similar activity in the Yucatan Channel. More isolated
activity is found elsewhere south of 25N west of 87W.

A trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula late at night
through tonight bringing fresh to strong NE winds to the eastern
Bay of Campeche. The weak trough along 85W is forecast to move
westward across the eastern and central Gulf today, with little
impact to winds and seas. A second trough will move across Florida
this morning and across the eastern Gulf later today, then reach
the NW part of the Gulf on Sat before dissipating Sat night.
Otherwise, a ridge will remain over the remainder of the area
supporting gentle to moderate winds through the period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale force winds are currently occurring off the coast of
Colombia. See special features section above for more info. Latest
ASCAT pass shows strong to near gale force trades from 10N-16N
between 70W-81W, while fresh trades cover the E Caribbean.
Dry Saharan air covers the E Caribbean east of 70W. Broad upper-
troughing over the western Caribbean is inducing scattered
showers and tstorms from 19N-21N between 77W-81W, with isolated
activity elsewhere in the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers and
tstorms are over the SW Caribbean south of 12N, mainly west of
80W, due to the East Pacific monsoon trough. A low-mid level
trough over the SE Bahamas and Windward Passage is inducing
scattered showers and isolated tstorms near the Windward Passage.

A strong pres gradient between the Bermuda high and low pres over
northern Colombia will support strong to near gale force winds
over much of the central and SW Caribbean through Tue night. NE
to E winds will pulse to minimal gale force along and within about
90 nm of the coast of Colombia at night through early Sun. Winds
may also reach minimal gale force in the Gulf of Venezuela at
night early this morning and again tonight. Otherwise, trades
will be mainly moderate to fresh, except fresh to strong in the
tropical N Atlantic today through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough was added to the analysis at 28/0300 UTC between
the Bahamas and South Florida from 26.5N78W to 23N80W. Scattered
showers and tstorms are in the vicinity of the NW Bahamas and the
waters east of South Florida. This is the trough that will move
across Florida and the eastern Gulf today, mentioned above in the
Gulf of Mexico section. Another surface trough extends from
31N73W to the Bahamas near 24N76W to just N of eastern Cuba. A
mid-level trough is present in the vicinity of the SE Bahamas and
the Windward Passage. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
over the SE Bahamas. Isolated showers are near the surface trough
northeast of the Bahamas. These troughs will enhance showers and
tstorms from the Bahamas to South Florida today, as well as
eastern and central Cuba. Farther E, a surface trough extends from
31N47W to 27N58W, with isolated showers noted along the trough.
Ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.

The surface trough extending from near 26.5N78W to 23N80W will
move W across S Florida this morning and into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico later today. The southern portion of the second trough will
track westward from the Bahamas toward S Florida late today
through late Saturday accompanied by scattered showers and
tstorms. The pressure gradient on the SW side of the Bermuda high
will strengthen today through Sunday, increasing E winds to
moderate speeds E of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are
expected at night N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the
Windward Passage through Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net