[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
146 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between the
Bermuda high and the Colombian low will induce nocturnal gale-
force winds near the coast of Colombia beginning at 27/0600 UTC.
Latest ASCAT pass from near 27/0114 UTC shows near gales in the
Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia. Winds will drop
below gale force by mid-morning today. Gale-force winds should
develop again in the same area tonight and end around sunrise Fri.
Seas will build to 10-13 ft by early this morning in the south-
central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Refer to the Atlantic
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located over West Africa and the far E Atlantic
with axis along 14/15W from 02N-15N, moving W around 20 kt.
Numerous moderate with embedded scattered strong convection is
seen within 90 nm E and 180 nm W of the wave axis from 06N-10N.

A tropical wave is analyzed over the central tropical Atlantic,
with axis extending from 19N42W to 05N44W, moving W around 20 kt.
Scattered moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is
noted from 03N-10N between 37W-52W. The position of the wave is
based upon a maximum in Total Precipitable Water along with 700 mb
trough diagnostics.

A tropical wave is approaching the eastern Caribbean, with axis
analyzed along 58/59W from 03N-19N, moving W around 25 kt. Dry
Saharan air surrounds this wave limiting convection. The wave is
clearly identifiable from 700 mb trough diagnostics.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 79/80W
from 06N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
in the wave's environment, with isolated tstorms also seen where
the wave intersects the monsoon trough east of Costa Rica and
north of western Panama. The position of the wave is based upon
the 700 mb trough diagnostics. The wave may be contributing toward
the strong to gale force tradewinds over the central Caribbean
just east of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
16N16W to 07N24W to 05N27W. The ITCZ begins near 05N27W to 07N39W,
then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N46W to the coast of
South America near 04N52W. Aside from the convection described
near the tropical waves along 15W and 43W, isolated moderate
convection is noted near and within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ between 20W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is analyzed near the west coast of Florida.
Upper-level diffluence is enhancing isolated showers and tstorms
near the trough from 24N-29N between the west coast of Florida
and 84W. The surface trough is forecast to move W across the
eastern Gulf through today, reaching the central Gulf by Friday,
with little impact in winds and seas.

A second trough will move across Florida into the eastern basin
Fri and reach the NW waters on Sat before dissipating Sat night. A
diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce
fresh to strong winds each night through Fri night as it moves
west-northwest over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, a ridge will dominate
the remainder of the Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate
winds through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section above for information on the
Caribbean Gale Warning. See Tropical Waves section for information
on the convection associated with the tropical wave along 79/80W.

Dry Saharan air covers much of the eastern and central Caribbean,
although isolated showers and tstorms are seen over Haiti and in
the Windward Passage. Isolated showers and tstorms cover the NW
Caribbean, likely due to a broad upper-level trough over the area,
which is making the atmosphere slightly more unstable.

Strong to gale force winds cover the south-central Caribbean, with
fresh trades elsewhere, except for the NW Caribbean, where
moderate winds are noted based on the latest ASCAT pass.

A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the
Colombian low will support strong to near gale force winds in the
central and SW basin through Mon night. Winds will pulse to
minimal gale force NW of the coast of Colombia at night through
tonight, and again Sat night. Two tropical waves will move across
the tropical N Atlc waters during the weekend into Mon, increasing
winds and seas E of the Lesser Antilles.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 29N71W to
25N76W. Scattered showers and tstorms are over the NW Bahamas,
with isolated showers and tstorms west of the trough from 27N-31N
between 71W-81W. A surface trough that extends from 31N49W
northeastward and out of the area is inducing scattered showers
north of 29N between 46W-50W. West of 50W north of 23N, winds are
light to gentle due to only weak ridging north of the area. ASCAT
shows strong N winds closer to Africa, from 16N-21N between 18W-
24W.

The trough NE of the Bahamas will move westward through tonight,
reaching Florida early on Fri. The pressure gradient on the SW
side of the Bermuda high will strengthen today through Sun,
increasing the trade winds to moderate E of the Bahamas. Fresh to
strong winds are expected at night N of Hispaniola and the
approaches to the Windward Passage today through Sat night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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