[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between the
Bermuda high and the Colombian low is inducing gale-force winds
near the coast of Colombia. The gales are forecast to end by
27/1500 UTC. Gale-force winds should redevelop in the same area
tonight and end after sunrise on Fri. Gales are forecast to return
Fri night. Seas of 10-13 ft are expected this morning in the
south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Please refer to
the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far E Atlantic tropical wave is along 17W from 15N southward,
moving W around 20 kt. Numerous moderate with embedded scattered
strong convection is seen within 90 nm E and 180 nm W of the wave
axis from 06N-10N.

A tropical wave is analyzed over the central tropical Atlantic
along 45W from 04N-19N, moving W around 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N-11N between 40W-52W. The position of
the wave is based upon a maximum in Total Precipitable Water
along with 700 mb trough diagnostics.

A tropical wave is approaching the eastern Caribbean, with axis
analyzed along 60W from 03N-19N, moving W around 20 kt. Dry
Saharan air surrounds this wave limiting convection. The wave is
clearly identifiable from 700 mb trough diagnostics.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 81/82W
from 06N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms
are noted near the wave axis S of 12N just offshore of Panama,
Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua, with isolated showers from
12N-16N. The position of the wave is based upon the 700 mb trough
diagnostics. The wave may have been contributing toward the
strong to gale force tradewinds over the central Caribbean to the
east of the wave axis overnight, but this influence will diminish
today as the wave moves farther west.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
16N16W to 07N24W to 06N26W. The ITCZ begins near 06N26W to 07N43W,
then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N48W to the coast of
South America near 05N52W. Aside from the convection described
near the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted
near the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 21W-33W. Scattered
moderate convection is also seen close to the NE coast of South
America from 05N-08N between 52W-56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is analyzed along 83W from 25N-29N with no
significant precipitation seen currently. A surface trough is over
the Bay of Campeche. West of the trough, scattered showers and
tstorms are seen S of 21N and W of 94W. A broad upper-level trough
over the NW Caribbean is inducing scattered tstorms over the
Yucatan Channel.

The surface trough along 83W is forecast to move W across the
eastern Gulf through tonight and over the central Gulf Fri, with
little impact to winds and seas. A second trough will move across
Florida and the eastern Gulf on Fri, then reach the northwest part
of the Gulf Sat before dissipating Sat night. A diurnal trough
will move off the Yucatan Peninsula late at night through Fri
bringing fresh to strong NE winds to the eastern Bay of Campeche.
Otherwise, a ridge will remain over the remainder of the area
supporting gentle to moderate winds through the period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section above for information on the
Caribbean Gale Warning. See Tropical Waves section for information
on the convection associated with the tropical wave along 81/82W.

Dry Saharan air covers much of the eastern and central Caribbean,
although isolated to scattered showers and tstorms are seen over
the Windward Passage. Isolated showers and tstorms cover the NW
Caribbean north of 19N, likely due to a broad upper-level trough
over the area, which is making the atmosphere unstable.

Strong to gale force winds cover the south-central Caribbean, with
fresh trades elsewhere, except for the NW Caribbean, where
moderate winds are noted based on the latest ASCAT pass.

A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and lower
pressure over Colombia will support strong to near gale force
winds over much of the central and SW Caribbean through Mon
night. NE to E winds will pulse to minimal gale force along and
within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia at night through Sun.
Winds may also reach minimal gale force in the Gulf of Venezuela.
A pair of tropical waves will move across the tropical N Atlc
waters during the weekend and into Mon, increasing winds and seas
over the waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 30N73W to
Eleuthera Island Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms
are in the vicinity of the NW Bahamas. A surface trough extends
from 32N48W to 28N54W. Scattered showers are along and within 60
nm east of the trough north of 29N and east of 50W. West of 50W
north of 23N, winds are light to gentle due to only weak ridging
north of the area. Earlier ASCAT data shows strong N winds closer
to Africa, from 16N-21N between 18W-24W.

The surface trough extending from 30N73W to Eleuthera Bahamas will
move west through this evening and across S Florida late tonight
into early Fri. Another surface trough will track westward from
the Bahamas toward S Florida late Fri through late on Sat
accompanied by scattered showers and tstorms. The pressure
gradient on the SW side of the Bermuda high will strengthen
tonight through Sun, increasing east winds to moderate speeds
east of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are expected at night
north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage
through Sat night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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