[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
729 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

A strengthening Bermuda high is anticipated to induce nocturnal
gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia beginning this
evening and ending by sunrise Thursday. Gale-force winds should
develop again in the same area by Thursday night and end by
sunrise Friday. Seas will build to 10-12 ft in the south-central
Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Atlantic
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located over West Africa with axis along 13W
from 01N-15N. Scattered showers are occurring within 75 nm on
either sides of the wave's axis mainly south of 12N.

A tropical wave is analyzed over the central tropical Atlantic,
with axis extending along 41W from 04N-18N, moving W around 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave's axis
mainly south of 10N. The position of the wave is based upon a
maximum in Total Precipitable Water east of the wave axis along
with 700 mb trough diagnostics. No significant surface signature
is present with this wave.

A tropical wave is approaching the eastern Caribbean, with axis
analyzed along 57W from 04N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. Dry
Saharan air surrounds this wave limiting convection at this time.
The wave is clearly identifiable from 700 mb trough diagnostics,
as well as a surface trough seen in the ASCAT scatterometer
data.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 78W from
05N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
wave's environment. The position of the wave is based upon the
700 mb trough diagnostics. The wave may be contributing toward the
strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean just east of the
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of West Africa near
15N17W to 07N23W. The ITCZ begins near 07N23W to 06N38W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave near 05N44W to the coast of South
America near 05N52W. Aside from the convection described near the
tropical wave along 41W, scattered moderate convection is noted
along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high is centered along the border of Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail
across the Gulf waters. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
Mexican coast mainly north of 20N and west of 94W.

A trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will
produce fresh to strong winds each night through Fri night as it
moves west-northwest over the SW Gulf. A weak trough is forecast
to move westward across the eastern Gulf tonight through Thu,
reaching the central Gulf by Fri, with little impact in winds and
seas. A second trough will move across Florida into the eastern
basin Fri and reach the NW waters on Sat before dissipating Sat
night. Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the remainder Gulf waters
supporting gentle to moderate winds through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave
mentioned in the section above, scattered moderate convection is
occurring within 120 nm of the coast of Central America west of
80W. A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and low
pressure over northern Colombia is producing generally moderate to
fresh trade winds across the Caribbean, with strong breezes N of
Colombia, the Gulf of Venezuela and the Gulf of Honduras.

The Bermuda high will continue strengthening this evening
increasing winds across the central and SW basin through the
weekend. Winds will pulse to minimal gale-force NW of the coast
of Colombia at night through Thu night, and then again Sat night.
Expect also some increasing winds and seas E of the Lesser
Antilles Fri through the weekend with the passage of the next
tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. A
surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 31N72W to
26N78W with scattered showers. West of 50W, winds are light to
gentle due to only weak ridging north of the areas. East of 50W,
generally moderate to fresh NE winds prevail.

The trough NE of the Bahamas will move westward through Thu,
likely reaching Florida by Fri. The pressure gradient on the SW
side of the Bermuda high will remain weak, producing light to
gentle winds in the area. The Bermuda high will strengthen
tonight through Sun night, and trade winds will increase to
moderate E of the Bahamas, and to a fresh breeze across the Old
Bahama Channel, and N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the
Windward Passage.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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