[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A strengthening Bermuda high is
anticipated to induce nocturnal gale force winds near the coast
of Colombia beginning this evening and ending by sunrise Thursday.
Gale force winds should return to the area Thursday night and end
by sunrise Friday. Seas will build to 10-12 ft in the south-
central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the
Atlantic High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been added near 10W from over West Africa to
near 00N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong showers and
thunderstorms are occurring within 120 nm of the axis north of
05N. The position of the wave is mainly based upon 700 mb trough
diagnostics.

A tropical wave is near 38W from 06N-17N, moving W around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
from 05N-07N between 36W-40W. The position of the wave is mainly
based upon a maximum in Total Precipitable Water east of the wave
axis along with 700 mb trough diagnostics. No significant surface
signature is present with this wave.

A tropical wave is near 53W from 02N-20N, moving W around 15 kt.
Dry Saharan air surrounds the wave, limiting convection at this
time. The wave is clearly identifiable from 700 mb trough
diagnostics as well as a surface trough seen in the ASCAT
scatterometer observations.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W from 05N-22N,
moving W around 15 kt. No significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is present in association with the wave. The position of
the wave is based upon the 700 mb trough diagnostics. The wave may
be contributing toward the strong tradewinds over the central
Caribbean just east of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of West Africa near
15N17W to 07N22W. The ITCZ begins near 07N22W to the coast of
South America near 05N52W. Aside from the convection described
near the tropical wave, scattered moderate showers and
thunderstorms are present within 120 nm of the axis from 18W to
30W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
occurring within 60 nm of the axis between 40W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1023 mb high is centered along the border of Louisiana and
Mississippi. Anticyclonically turning winds across the Gulf are
all generally gentle to moderate breeze. Scattered moderate showers
and thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the Mexican coast north of
20N.

A trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to
strong winds each night through Thu night as it moves west-
northwest over the SW Gulf. A weak trough is forecast to move
westward across the eastern Gulf tonight through Thu, reaching the
central Gulf by Fri, with little impact in winds and seas.
Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the remainder Gulf waters
supporting gentle to moderate winds through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves
mentioned in the section above, scattered moderate and isolated
strong showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 120 nm of
the coast of Central America and Yucatan of Mexico. A weak
pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and low pressure over
northern Colombia is producing generally moderate to fresh trade
winds across the Caribbean and tropical N Atlantic, with strong
breezes N of Colombia, the Gulf of Venezuela and the Gulf of
Honduras. The morning ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated peak NE
winds of 30 kt, just northwest of Colombia.

The Bermuda high will strengthen beginning today increasing winds
across the central and SW basin through the weekend. Winds will
pulse to minimal gale force NW of the coast of Colombia at night
through Thu night, and then again Sat night. Expect also some
increasing winds and seas E of the Lesser Antilles Fri through
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. A
surface trough extends from 31N50W to 26N58W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong showers and thunderstorms are present within
180 nm east of the trough north of 28N. West of 50W, winds are
light to gentle due to only weak ridging north of the areas. East
of 50W, a strong but northward positioned Azores high is
contributing toward generally moderate to fresh NE tradewinds.

A trough NE of the Bahamas will move westward through Thu, likely
reaching Florida by Fri. The pressure gradient on the SW side of
the Bermuda high will remain weak, producing light to gentle winds
in the area today. The Bermuda high will strengthen tonight
through Sun night, and trade winds will increase to moderate E of
the Bahamas, and to a fresh breeze across the Old Bahama Channel,
and N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea
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