[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232232
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa with its axis near
20W S of 14N moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen near the wave extending from 06N-09N between
20W-24W.

A tropical wave is located over the central Atlantic with axis
near 41W S of 11N moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted between 60-120 nm on either side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea near 65W S of
18N moving W around 15-20 kt. Associated convection is confined
to inland areas over Venezuela with scattered showers elsewhere
near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
07N21W to 06N31W. The ITCZ begins near 06N31W to 07N39W, then
resumes W of a tropical wave near 06N43W to near the coast of
Suriname/French Guiana near 06N54W. Aside from the convection
described near the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
is noted from 06N-08N between 24W-28W, from 05N-07N between 44W-
48W, and also from 06N-08N between 52W-56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging continues to dominate the basin with a 1019 mb high
pressure over the Florida Peninsula near Lake Okeechobee. No
significant convection is occurring over the Gulf at this time.
Winds under the ridging are light to moderate across the eastern
half of the Gulf, along with seas of 3 ft or less. Moderate to
fresh winds are across the western half of the Gulf, along with
4-7 ft seas.

A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce
fresh to strong winds each night through Wed night as it moves
west-northwest over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, high pressure will
remain in control of the weather pattern across the region during
the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on a
tropical wave moving across the basin.

Very dry air is noted N of 11N and W of Haiti with a mid to upper
level trough in place across the region. Meanwhile, tropical
moisture is progressing to the N-NE from northern South America to
across the eastern Caribbean under a mid to upper level ridge.
Isolated late afternoon/early evening convection has developed
over inland areas, which should diminish with the loss of daytime
heating.

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and low
pressure over northern Colombia has relaxed slightly to allow for
winds to diminish below gale force, with strong to near gale force
winds in the S central waters now. Seas of 8-13 ft are also in the
S central waters. Fresh to strong easterly winds are pulsing in
the Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 5-8 ft. Mainly moderate
to fresh trades are noted elsewhere across the basin, along with
3-5 ft seas.

The strong to near gale winds over the S central Caribbean will
diminish early this week, then will once again increase to near
gale force by mid-week. The fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of
Honduras are expected to continue through tonight, then again on
Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

Three features, a cold front and two troughs, are noted across the
waters N of 27N and W of 55W, to the E of a mid to upper level
trough. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are near
the surface features. Mainly light and variable winds prevail
across the SW N Atlantic, except moderate to locally fresh N of
25N and E of the surface features, as well as just offshore of
the N coast of Hispaniola. Meanwhile, seas are 3 ft or less W of
75W, and 4-6 ft E of 75W. An upper level low is noted near 31N44W
with a trough extending southward along roughly 43W. Otherwise,
mainly upper level ridging and subsidence dominates the remainder
of the basin.

High pressure of 1023 mb is located to the E near 28N39W, with
ridging extending from the high WSW to near the SE Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos. In the far eastern Atlantic, a dissipating cold
front is moving across the Canary Islands from 32N15W to 26N22W,
with a reinforcing cold front to the NW from 32N22W to 30N28W. No
significant convection is noted with these boundaries.

The frontal boundaries and troughs will all gradually weaken and
dissipate through mid-week, while a weak pressure pattern
prevails.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Lewitsky
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