[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian
low continues to support gale force winds this morning. The gale
warning has been extended through the morning hours as condition
persists. Seas of 10-14 ft are expected across the south-central
Caribbean before diminishing substantially on Monday. See the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at the NHC
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa with its axis
near 19W, south of 14N. Scattered moderate convection is seen
near the wave extending from 04N-14N between 15W-23W. Elsewhere,
scattered showers are observed near the coast Guinea between
22W-25W.

A tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic with axis
near 40W and south of 09N, moving west around 20 kt. Scattered
showers are noted between 60 to 80 nm on either side of the wave.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean near 63W south of 16N,
moving west around 10-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends
from the U.S Virgin Islands to the Lesser Antilles.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Guinea near 09N13W to
05N30W. The ITCZ begins near 05N30W then continues to 06N38W,
then resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N42W and stretches to
the Brazilian coast near 05N54W. Aside from the convection
described near the tropical wave along 40W, scattered moderate
convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 05N-08N
between 21W-25W and near the ITCZ from 04N-07N between 42W-56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging continues to dominate the basin with a 1020 mb high pressure
near 27N83W. No significant convection is occurring over the Gulf
at this time. Winds under the high are light and variable in the
eastern Gulf. In the central Gulf, winds are mostly moderate to
fresh out of the southeast with fresh to strong southeasterly
winds in the western basin.

A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce
fresh to strong winds each night through Thu as it moves west-
northwest over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, high pressure will remain
in control of the weather pattern across the region during the
next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see to the Special Features section above for information
on the Caribbean Gale Warning. Refer to the Tropical Waves section
for details on a tropical wave traversing the basin.

As a mid to low-level ridge brings subsidence to the basin,
significant convection is limited in development across most of
the basin. Scattered showers are seen across the eastern Caribbean
from W of 74W to the Lesser Antilles near the tropical wave. There
is scattered moderate convection seen near Panama and Costa Rica
due to the Pacific monsoon trough. Trade winds in the central
Caribbean are fresh to strong, with moderate winds in the eastern
and western basin. Light winds are in the northern Caribbean.

Because of the Saharan Air Layer and robust mid to low-level
ridge dominating the area, the Greater Antilles are experiencing
very warm conditions today. Veguitas, Granma in Cuba recorded a
high temperature of 99.8 degrees Fahrenheit. There were 28
stations across Cuba that reported maximum temperatures of 95
degrees Fahrenheit or higher, with 10 of these stations recording
near 97 degrees.

Strong to near gale winds over the south central Caribbean will
diminish early this week. Winds will once again increase to near
gale force midweek. Strong winds are expected to pulse over the
Gulf of Honduras tonight and Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details about the
two tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

Moderate to strong convection continues across the northern
portions of the western and central Atlantic. Convection over the
U.S. moved over the mid-level ridge into the S.E. U.S. where it
entered the Atlantic waters as upper-level divergence aids in
continuing this convection. A cold front enters the western
Atlantic waters from 31N54W to 28N72W and curves northwest to
30N77W. A line of thunderstorms are seen ahead of the boundary,
noted from 26N-29N between 61W-71W. Moderate to fresh southwesterly
winds are seen near this area. In the central Atlantic, another
line of thunderstorms, not as robust as the aforementioned area of
convection, is seen along the pre-frontal trough. The pre-frontal
trough is analyzed from 30N56W to 27N64W with the convection
observed from 27N-31N between 50W-60W.

The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by a 1023 mb high pressure
near 27N38W ridging across the area. In the eastern Atlantic,
another cold front enters the waters to the west of the Canary
Islands near 31N16W and stretches southward to 26N22W. No
convection is associated with this boundary.

High pressure prevailing over the forecast waters will gradually
weaken early this week as a weak low pressure moves off the SE of
United States. This system will clip the north-central waters Mon
evening into Tue while dissipating.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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