[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1019 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian
low will support gale force winds through early this morning.
Seas of 10-14 ft are expected across the south-central Caribbean
before diminishing substantially on Monday. See the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic with axis
near 37W south of 10N, moving west around 20 kt. Scattered
showers are noted near this feature from 06N-08N within 60 nm of
the axis.

A tropical wave is near the Lesser Antilles in the central
Atlantic with axis near 61W south of 16N, moving west around 10-20
kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist from 12N-14N
between 59W-63W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is located north of Costa Rica
with an axis near 83W south of 14N, moving west around 10-15 kt.
No significant showers or thunderstorms are present near the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 04N31W. The ITCZ begins near 04N31W then continues to
04N37W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 04N38W and
stretches to the Brazilian coast near 04N51W. Aside from the
convection described near the tropical wave along 37W, scattered
moderate convection is noted along and near the monsoon trough
from 05N- 10N between 11W-24W. Scattered showers are near the
ITCZ from 04N-08N between 42W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging continues to dominate the basin with a 1020 mb high
pressure near 28N84W. No significant convection is occurring over
the Gulf at this time, with the exception of a small area of
thunderstorms moving off the Mexican coast near 23N98W. Winds
under the high are light and variable in the eastern Gulf. In the
central Gulf, winds are mostly moderate to fresh out of the
southeast with fresh to strong southeasterly winds in the western
basin.

A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce
fresh to strong winds each night through Wednesday as it moves
west- northwest over the SW Gulf. High pressure centered over the
eastern Gulf will remain in control of the weather pattern across
the region during the next several days.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see to the Special Features section above for more information
on the Caribbean Gale Warning. Refer to the Tropical Waves section
for details on a tropical wave traversing the basin.

As a mid to low-level ridge brings subsidence to the basin,
significant convection is limited in development across most of
the basin. There is scattered moderate convection seen in the SW
Caribbean due to the monsoon trough off the coast of Panama, S of
10N between 80W-83W. Trade winds in the central Caribbean are
fresh to strong, with moderate winds in the eastern and western
basin. Light winds are in the northern Caribbean.

Because of the Saharan Air Layer and robust mid to low-level
ridge dominating the area, Cuba experienced very warm conditions
on Saturday. Veguitas, Granma recorded a high temperature of 99.8
degrees Fahrenheit. There were 28 stations across Cuba that
reported maximum temperatures of 95 degrees Fahrenheit or higher,
with 10 of these stations recording near 97 degrees.

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian
low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal gales off the coast
of Colombia through early this morning. Then, strong winds will
prevail in the south-central Caribbean through Wednesday. Strong
to near gale force winds are expected to pulse over the Gulf of
Honduras each night through Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details about the
two tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

Moderate to strong convection continues across the northern
portions of the western and central Atlantic. Convection over the
U.S. moved over the mid-level ridge into the S.E. U.S. where it
entered the Atlantic waters as upper-level divergence aids in
continuing this convection. The first cluster of thunderstorms is
seen 200 nm off the Florida coast, from 28N-31N between 76W-79W.
Then, a cold front enters the western Atlantic waters from 31N71W
to 31N75W. A line of thunderstorms are along this boundary, noted
from 28N-31N between 64W-74W. Moderate to fresh southwesterly
winds are seen near this area. In the central Atlantic, another
line of thunderstorms, albeit not as robust as the aforementioned
area of convection, is seen along the pre- frontal trough. The
pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 31N56W to 27N65W with the
convection observed from 28N- 31N between 54W-62W.

The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by a 1023 mb high pressure
near 28N42W ridging across the area. In the south-central
Atlantic, there is an area of scattered moderate convection from
13N-17N between 52W-58W. Another cold front enters the waters to
the west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 31N18W and stretches
southward to 27N23W. No convection is associated with this
boundary.

High pressure prevailing over the forecast waters will gradually
weaken early this week as a weak low pressure moves off the SE of
United States. This system will clip the north-central waters
Monday evening into Tuesday while dissipating.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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