[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa with its axis near
21W S of 14N moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are seen
near the wave extending from 07N-10N between 21W-22W.

A tropical wave is located over the central Atlantic with axis
near 42W S of 10N moving W around 10-15 kt. No significant
convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea near 66W S of
18N moving W around 10-15 kt. Associated convection is confined
to inland areas over Venezuela with scattered showers elsewhere
near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to
05N30W. The ITCZ begins near 05N30W and continues to 06N40W, then
resumes W of a tropical wave near 06N44W to near the coast of
French Guiana near 05N53W. Aside from the convection described
near the tropical waves, scattered showers are noted from 03N-
07N between 24W-30W, from 04N-09N between 44W- 48W, and also from
06N- 08N between 43W-53W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
south of the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between 08W-17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging continues to dominate the basin with a 1019 mb high
pressure near 27N84W in the eastern Gulf. No significant
convection is occurring over the Gulf at this time. Winds under
the ridging are light to moderate across the eastern half of the
Gulf, along with seas of 3 ft or less. Moderate to fresh east-
southeasterly winds are across the western half of the Gulf,
along with 4-7 ft seas.

A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce
fresh to strong winds each night through Wednesday night as it
moves west-northwest over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, high pressure
will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region
during the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on a
tropical wave moving across the basin.

Very dry air is noted N of 11N and W of Haiti with a mid to upper
level trough in place across the region. Meanwhile, tropical
moisture is progressing to the N-NE from northern South America to
across the eastern Caribbean under a mid to upper level ridge.
Isolated showers are seen over the eastern Caribbean E of 75W.

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and low
pressure over northern Colombia has relaxed slightly to allow for
winds to diminish below gale force, with strong to near gale force
winds in the S central waters now. Seas of 8-13 ft are also in the
S central waters. Fresh to strong easterly winds are pulsing in
the Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 5-8 ft. Mainly moderate
to fresh trades are noted elsewhere across the basin, along with
3-5 ft seas.

Strong to near gale winds over the south central Caribbean will
diminish by Monday morning. Fresh to strong winds will prevail
thereafter, increasing once again to near gale force on Wednesday
night and continuing through Friday. Strong winds are expected to
pulse over the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

A cold front enters the waters near 31N58W and stretches westward
to 28N75W, where the front stalls from that point to 31N77W. A
pre-frontal trough is seen from 31N56W to 25N67W, and a post-
frontal trough near 31N61W to 29N71W. Numerous thunderstorms are
seen along the front and pre-frontal trough from 26N-31N between
55W-63W. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are seen near these
features from 26N-28N between 64W-74W. Moderate to fresh
southwesterly winds are seen ahead of the front. There are also
two cold fronts in the eastern Atlantic, the first enters the
waters near 31N21W to 29N31W. The second cold front, which is
weakening, is seen from 31N15W to 25N21W. A 1025 mb high is seen
near 31N31W and is ridging across the rest of the domain.

High pressure prevailing over the forecast waters will weaken Mon
as weak low pressure moves off the SE U.S. This system will clip
the north-central waters Monday evening into Tuesday while
dissipating.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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