[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian
low will support nocturnal pulses of gale force winds off the
coast of Colombia tonight and Saturday night. Seas of 11-17 ft
are expected across the south-central Caribbean. See the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic with axis
near 24W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted east of the wave axis between 19W and 23W.

A tropical wave is analyzed over the central Atlantic with axis
near 49W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is well depicted
in model guidance, satellite imagery, and earlier scatterometer
data. Scattered showers persist with this wave between 45W and 53W.

A southwest Caribbean tropical wave is located north of eastern
Panama near 78W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Dry air continues to
limit convection near this wave, although scattered thunderstorms
are noted inland over Panama and western Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 16N16W to
15N21W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 08N26W to
08N35W. The ITCZ continues from 08N35W to 09N47W. Aside from the
convection described above, scattered moderate convection is
noted from 08N to 11N east of 17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the central Gulf with 1019 mb high
pressure analyzed near the southwest coast of Florida. Earlier
scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh winds across the
western Gulf, while tranquil marine conditions persist across the
eastern Gulf with light to gentle winds and seas 3 ft or less.
A thermal surface trough has developed near the Yucatan Peninsula.

The trough over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to
strong winds each night through early next week as it moves west-
northwest over the SW Gulf. A high pressure ridge over the eastern
Gulf will slowly move northward through Sat, then remain nearly
stationary over the NE Gulf Sun through Tue night. Surface ridging
building over the SE United States will extend S across the northern
half of the basin Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see to the Special Features section above for more
information on the Caribbean Gale Warning. Refer to the Tropical
Waves section for details on a tropical wave traversing the basin.

Dry Saharan air covers the NW Caribbean, with little to no shower
activity noted in the latest satellite imagery. Scattered
moderate convection near the monsoon trough continues over the
southern Caribbean off the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, S of
10N between 78W-83W. Buoy 42058 recently reported strong winds
with seas to 12 ft in the central Caribbean north of Colombia.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades prevail across the basin per
earlier scatterometer data.

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian
low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal gales off the coast
of Colombia tonight and Sat night. Strong winds will prevail in
the south-central basin thereafter, increasing to near gale force
along the coast at night. Strong to near gale force winds are
expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night through
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details about the
two tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

Earlier scatterometer data revealed fresh SW to W winds over the
waters N of 30N west of 67W, as the pressure gradient has
tightened ahead of a cold front moving off the Mid-Atlantic
coast. Fresh to strong SW winds will affect the northern waters
through tonight. High pressure dominates much of the basin as
1025 mb high pressure near 27N47W maintains a ridge axis westward
across the Bahamas. This ridge will persist through Sat, then
weaken Sun into early next week as weak low pressure forms off the
southeast U.S. coast. Strong to near gale force W to NW winds
will affect the NW waters Sun night following the low and
associated trough. Elsewhere, strong winds will pulse north of
Hispaniola tonight, then subside by Sat as the pressure gradient
relaxes.

Farther east, a ridge axis extends northeastward from 1023 mb
high pressure near 27N31W. South of this ridge, moderate to fresh
N to NE flow prevails off the west coast of Africa.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Reinhart/Christensen
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