[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
158 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian
low will support nocturnal pulses of gale force winds off the
coast of Colombia tonight and Saturday night. Seas of 12-16 ft
are expected across the south-central Caribbean. See the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic with axis
near 25W S of 11N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are noted near this feature from 05N-08N between
22W-26W.

A tropical wave is analyzed over the central Atlantic with axis
near 50W S of 13N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is well
depicted in model guidance, satellite imagery, and earlier
scatterometer data. Scattered showers persist with this wave
between 48W and 52W.

A southwest Caribbean tropical wave is located north of eastern
Panama near 78W S of 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Dry air
continues to limit convection near this wave, although scattered
thunderstorms are continue across Panama and western Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Senegal near 14N17W to
06N36W. The ITCZ continues from 06N36W to 06N48W. Aside from the
convection described above, scattered moderate convection is noted
south of the monsoon trough from 08N-11N between 13W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mid-level and surface ridging prevail across the Gulf of Mexico
with a 1020 mb high along the coast of south-central Florida near
27N83W. Scattered showers are seen W of the Florida Keys,
otherwise tranquil weather is seen across the basin. Light to
gentle winds are in the eastern Gulf under the high, with moderate
to fresh southeasterly winds in the western Gulf. Moderate to
fresh winds are north of the Yucatan due to the thermal trough,
analyzed from 21N89W to 19N92W.

A diurnal trough over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to
strong winds each night through Wednesday as it moves west-
northwest over the SW Gulf. A high pressure ridge over the eastern
Gulf will slowly move northward through Saturday, then remain
nearly stationary over the NE Gulf Sunday through Tuesday night.
Surface ridging building over the SE CONUS will extend S across
the northern half of the basin Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see to the Special Features section above for more
information on the Caribbean Gale Warning. Refer to the Tropical
Waves section for details on a tropical wave traversing the basin.

Dry Saharan air covers the NW Caribbean, with little to no
convective activity noted in the latest satellite imagery.
Scattered moderate convection near the monsoon trough continues
over the southern Caribbean off the coasts of Panama and Costa
Rica, S of 09N between 76W-78W. Recent scatterometer data
indicates strong to gale force winds north of Colombia from
12N-15N between 71W-75W, with fresh to strong trades across
the rest of the central Caribbean and moderate to fresh trades in
the Gulf of Honduras. Light to moderate trades are seen in the E
and NW Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian
low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal gales off the coast
of Colombia tonight and Saturday night. Strong winds will prevail
in the south-central basin thereafter. Strong to near gale force
winds are expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night
through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details about the
two tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

Isolated thunderstorms are seen in the central Atlantic from 26N-
31N between 55W-59W. Otherwise, tranquil weather prevails under a
1025 mb high near 27N43W in the central basin. Moderate to fresh
southwesterly winds are seen in the west-central Caribbean, ahead
of a mid-level trough extending into the area, from 28N-31N
between 57W-74W. Light to moderate winds prevail in the southern
Atlantic S of 20N. Closer to the coast of Africa, moderate to
fresh northerly winds are seen off the coasts of Senegal and
Mauritania in addition to the Western Sahara and Morocco.

A high pressure ridge will dominate much of the region through
Saturday, then weaken Sunday into early next week as weak low
pressure forms off the southeast U.S. coast. Strong W to NW winds
will affect the NW waters Sunday night following the low and a
surface trough extending from the low. Strong winds will pulse
north of Hispaniola tonight, then subside by Saturday as the
pressure gradient relaxes. Fresh to strong SW winds will affect
the northern waters through tonight.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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