[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian
low will support nocturnal pulses of gale force winds off the
coast of Colombia tonight and Saturday night. Seas of 11-16 ft are
expected across the south-central Caribbean. See the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic, with axis
along 22N from 01N-10N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt over the past
24 hours. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's environment
mainly east of 26W.

A tropical wave is analyzed over the central Atlantic, with axis
along 46W from 00N-12N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt over the past
24 hours. This wave is well depicted in model guidance, satellite
imagery, as well as scatterometer data. Scattered showers persist
in the wave's environment between 40W- 52W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 76W from
07N-19N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Due
to dry air, no convection is noted near this feature at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 16N16W to
16N20W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 08N23W to
09N33W. The ITCZ continues from 09N33W to 10N43W. Aside from the
convection described in the Tropical Waves section above,
scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, and with it fair
weather. A thermal surface trough near the Yucatan is analyzed
from 22N89W to 19N92W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh anticyclonic winds across the basin.

The diurnal trough near the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh
to strong winds each night through early next week as it moves NW
over the SW Gulf. High pressure ridge over the central Gulf will
slowly move northward through Sat, then remain nearly stationary
over the NE Gulf Sun through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above in regards to
the Caribbean Gale Warning currently in effect. A tropical wave
is traversing the basin. See the Tropical Waves section above for
details.

Dry Saharan air covers the NW Caribbean, with little to no shower
activity noted. Scattered moderate convection associated with the
monsoon trough is noted over the southern Caribbean off the
coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, S of 12N between 78W-83W.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the basin.

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and
the Colombian low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal
gales off the coast of Colombia tonight and Sat night. Strong
winds are expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night
through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about the two tropical
waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

High pressure dominates the basin, anchored by a pair of 1025 mb
highs centered near 27N40W and 27N30W. Moderate to fresh south-
southwesterly winds are also noted in the western Atlantic.

High pressure ridge will continue dominating much of the region
through Sat, then weaken Sun into early next week as weak low
pressure forms off the southeast U.S. coast. Strong winds will
pulse north of Hispaniola tonight, then subside by Sat as the
pressure gradient relaxes. Fresh to strong SW winds will affect
the northern waters through tonight.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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