[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211050
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Bermuda
high and the Colombian low will support nocturnal pulse of minimal
gale force winds off the coast of Colombia tonight and Saturday
night. Seas of 11-16 ft are expected across the south- central
Caribbean. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 20W S of 10N. Scattered showers are seen
in the vicinity of this feature from 05N-08N between 19W-21W.

A tropical wave is along 44W S of 03N. Scattered showers are seen
from 02N-11N between 42W-46W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W S of 19N. Due to dry
air, no convection is noted near this feature at this time.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W S of 14N. Scattered
moderate convection is seen mostly in Central America with some
activity in the Caribbean, from 11N- 17N between 83W-87W. Due to
the ongoing convection in this region and the stronger approaching
wave along 74W, this feature is becoming less discernible.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 06N28W. The ITCZ continues from 06N28W to
07N43W, then W of a tropical wave near 07N44W to the coast of
Brazil near 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along
the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between 11W-19W, in addition to
05N-08N between 21W-26W. Scattered showers are seen 150 nm north
of the ITCZ between 34W-56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mid-level ridging in addition to surface ridging prevails across
the Gulf of Mexico, and with it fair weather. The trough near the
Yucatan is analyzed from 22N89W to 19N93W. Winds in the eastern
Gulf are light to gentle out of the west-southwest. Moderate to
fresh winds are north of the Yucatan, with gentle to moderate
southerly winds in the western Gulf.

A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce
fresh to strong winds each night through early next week as it
moves NW over the SW Gulf. A high pressure ridge over the central
Gulf will slowly move northward through Saturday, then remain
nearly stationary over the NE Gulf Sunday through Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the special features section in regards to the Caribbean Gale
Warning. Two tropical waves are traversing the Caribbean Sea.
See the Tropical Waves section above for details.

Dry Saharan air covers the NW Caribbean, with little to no shower
activity noted, other than some dissipating showers in the
Windward Passage. Scattered moderate convection associated with
the monsoon trough is also seen in the southern Caribbean off the
coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, S of 11N between 78W-83W. Strong
trade winds continue to cover the central Caribbean Sea, with
near gales over portions of the south- central Caribbean. Moderate
to fresh trades are in the eastern basin with light to gentle
winds in the northern basin.

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian
low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal gales off the coast
of Colombia tonight and Saturday night. Strong winds are expected
to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night through early next
week. A tropical wave near 73W will produce strong gusty winds as
it moves W across the central and western Caribbean through
Saturday. Elsewhere, generally moderate to fresh trades will
prevail through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Mid-upper level trough moving off of the U.S. East Coast is
inducing showers from 28N31N between 60W-66W. Otherwise, high
pressure dominates the rest of the domain with fair weather
throughout the area. Two 1023 mb highs are analyzed in the
Atlantic near 27N52W and 28N29W.  Moderate to fresh south-
southwesterly winds are also noted in the western Atlantic.

Strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola tonight, then subside
by Saturday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Fresh to strong SW
winds will affect the northern waters through Friday night ahead
of a cold front that will move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday.
A high pressure ridge will dominate much of the region through
Saturday, then weaken Sunday into early next week as weak low
pressure forms off the southeast U.S. coast.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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