[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian low will support minimal gale force winds
tonight in the Gulf of Venezuela and off the north coast of
Colombia. Winds will then be just below gale force Thu morning
until late Friday, when gales are again expected off the coast of
Colombia. Seas of 12-16 ft are expected across the south-central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, tonight. See the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W S of 13N. A moisture
maximum in the LPW is noted near this wave. Scattered showers are
seen near this wave from 08N- 09N between 32W-35W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W S of 16N. Scattered
thunderstorms and showers are seen within the vicinity of this
wave from 14N-15N between 63W-67W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W S of 18N. Due to dry
Saharan air, little to no convection is noted.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to
07N32W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 06N36W to the
coast of Brazil near 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
along the ITCZ and south of the monsoon trough from 05N-10N
between 18W-56W. A well defined line of thunderstorms is moving
off of Guinea and Sierra Leone from 09N-10N between 13W-16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough continues to dig across Florida, with mid-
upper level ridging covering the western Gulf. Scattered showers
with isolated thunderstorms are seen just off the coast of
Florida, however most of the significant convection has
dissipated. Fair weather prevails across the central and western
basin. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail in the
central and eastern Gulf with moderate easterly winds north of the
Yucatan. Moderate southeasterly winds are in the western Gulf
particularly off the Texas and Mexican coast W of 96W.

A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce
fresh to strong winds each night as it moves NW into the SW Gulf
of Mexico. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge will slowly move
northward over the Gulf through the weekend, then persist over the
NE Gulf through Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the special features section in regards to the Caribbean Gale
warning.

Two tropical waves are traversing the Caribbean Sea. See the
Tropical Waves section above for details. The upper level pattern
consists of a shortwave trough across the NW Caribbean Sea and a
weak upper ridge over the central and eastern Caribbean. The
GOES-16 Saharan Air Layer tracking product shows that a plume of
African dust has reached the western and central Caribbean Sea.
Strong subsidence is keeping convection at a minimum, with some
isolated thunderstorms adjacent to the monsoon trough moving off
the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, S of 10N between 76W-82W.

The latest ASCAT pass shows gale force winds in the Gulf of
Venezuela and north of Colombia, with fresh strong winds
throughout the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are also
noted in the Bay of Honduras. Moderate trades are seen in the
eastern basin, with gentle to moderate trades in the northern
Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between Bermuda high pressure and the
Colombian low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal gale force
winds off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela through Saturday
night, except on Thursday night. Strong winds are expected to
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each night through Sunday night. A
tropical wave near 64W will produce scattered thunderstorms with
gusty winds as it moves westward across the central and western
Caribbean Thursday through Saturday. Elsewhere, generally
moderate to fresh trades will prevail through the weekend and into
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The convection from earlier in the western Atlantic has weakened
with showers and isolated thunderstorms seen from 27N30N between
75W-79W. The GOES-16 Saharan Air Layer tracking product shows that
a plume of African dust extends from Puerto Rico to the Central
Bahamas, including Hispaniola and eastern and central Cuba.
Otherwise, fair weather prevails across the rest of the basin as
surface ridging from a 1024 mb high near 27N50W dominates the
area. Light anticyclonic winds are seen across most of this area,
with moderate to fresh southwesterly winds in the western
Atlantic. Moderate to fresh winds are also noted across the
Atlantic S of 20N.

Strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola tonight and Thursday
night. Winds will strengthen over the northern waters Thursday
through Friday ahead of a cold front that will move off the U.S.
East Coast late in the week. A high pressure ridge will dominate
much of the region through Saturday, then weaken Sunday into
Monday as the cold front continues moving across the western
Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net