[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201057
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
657 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1019 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian low will support minimal gale force winds
in the Gulf of Venezuela and off the north coast of Colombia until
1200 UTC this morning. Winds will then be just below gale force
Thursday morning until late Friday, when gales expected to return
off the coast of Colombia. Seas of 11-17 ft are expected across
the south- central Caribbean. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W S of 12N. A moisture
maximum in the LPW is noted near this wave. Scattered showers are
seen near this wave from 06N- 09N between 34W-37W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W S of 15N. Scattered
moderate convection is seen within the northern vicinity of the
wave from 14N-16N between 64W-69W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W S of 16N. Due to dry
Saharan air, little to no convection is noted.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N14W to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 08N32W,
then continues W of a tropical wave near 07N37W to the coast of
Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered showers are moving along the monsoon
trough from 09N-10N between 14W-16W. Scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms are seen south of the monsoon trough and
along the ITCZ from 05N- 10N between 18W- 38W, with another area
of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the ITCZ
from 03N-07N between 45W- 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough is beginning of move east of Florida, with
mid- upper level ridging covering the western Gulf. A line of
showers and thunderstorms are seen along the Florida Panhandle
from 29N-30N between 85W-88W. There are also dissipating showers
seen 50 nm within the central coast of Louisiana. The trough along
the Yucatan Peninsula is analyzed from 22N89W to 18N92W. Moderate
to fresh southwesterly winds are seen in the north- central
basin, with moderate to fresh southeasterly winds in the western
Gulf. Gentle winds are in the eastern basin.

A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce
fresh to strong winds each night as it moves NW over the SW Gulf
of Mexico. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge will slowly move N
from the central Gulf to the northern Gulf by Sunday, then
persist there through Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the special features section in regards to the Caribbean Gale
warning.

Two tropical waves are traversing the Caribbean Sea. See the
Tropical Waves section above for details. An upper level trough
extends to Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands with a mid- upper
level ridge over the central and eastern Caribbean. The GOES-16
Saharan Air Layer tracking product shows that a plume of African
dust has reached the western and central Caribbean Sea. Strong
subsidence is keeping convection at a minimum. Most of the
activity in the Caribbean is associated with the tropical wave in
addition to thunderstorms adjacent to the monsoon trough moving
off the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, S of 10N between 76W-
82W. There are also isolated showers approaching Puerto Rico.

Fresh to strong winds continue across the central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh trades are seen in the eastern basin, with
gentle to moderate trades in the northern Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between Bermuda high pressure and the
Colombian low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal gale force
winds off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela until around dawn
today, then again Friday night and Saturday night. Strong winds
are expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night through
Sunday night. A tropical wave near 65W will produce scattered
thunderstorms with gusty winds as it moves W across the central
and western Caribbean through Saturday. Elsewhere, generally
moderate to fresh trades will prevail through the weekend and into
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the
western Atlantic from 28N-30N between 67W- 75W. The GOES-16
Saharan Air Layer tracking product shows that a plume of African
dust extends from Puerto Rico to the Central Bahamas, including
Hispaniola and eastern and central Cuba. Otherwise, fair weather
prevails across the rest of the basin as surface ridging from a
1024 mb high near 28N54W and a 1022 mb high near 27N33W dominating
the area.

Strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola until around dawn today
and then again tonight. Fresh to strong winds will affect the
northern waters through Friday ahead of a cold front that will
move off the U.S. East Coast Friday night. A high pressure ridge
will dominate much of the region through Saturday, then weaken
Sunday into Monday as the cold front continues moving E across
the western Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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