[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192341
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
741 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and 1007 mb low pressure over Colombia will support gale
force winds tonight in the Gulf of Venezuela and off the north
coast of Colombia. Winds will then be just below gale force Thu
morning until late Friday, when gales are again expected off the
coast of Colombia. Elsewhere across the south-central Caribbean,
winds of 25-33 kt should persist continuously through Saturday
night. Seas of 12-15 ft are expected across the south-central
Caribbean, and to 8 ft in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. See the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 32W from 13N southward, moving W at 20-25
kt. Upper-level diffluence in the area is supporting scattered
showers from 03N-11N between 27W-34W. A moisture maximum along
with curvature in the moisture field is clearly noted in the CIRA
Layered Precipitable Water product in the surface to 700 mb layer.
A model diagnosed 700 mb trough also supports the analysis of this
tropical wave. The wave is likely to enhance rainfall over the
Lesser Antilles this weekend.

A tropical wave is moving through the Lesser Antilles along 62W
from 05N-16N, moving W around 20 kt. Upper-level divergence
from the latest CIMSS-NESDIS analysis and abundant low to mid
level moisture seen in the latest TPW product support scattered
moderate convection south of 15N between 59W-63W, including over
the Windward Islands. Wind gusts ranging between 30-40 kt were
recently observed Wednesday afternoon across the Windward Islands.
The gusts are due to the combined effects of the tropical wave
and the strong pressure gradient across the region.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 07N-18N,
moving W at 20-25 kt. The wave is currently being engulfed by dry
Saharan air, with little convection noted. Convection associated
with this wave could become reinvigorated when it reaches Central
America Thursday night or Friday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 09N20W. The ITCZ begins near 09N20W to
05N30W, then resumes west of the tropical wave from 05N34W to
04N52W. In addition to the convection associated with the tropical
wave along 32W described above, scattered moderate convection is
noted along the ITCZ between 39W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough is over Florida, whereas mid-upper level
ridging covers the western Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate
convection is over Florida, with scattered showers and isolated
tstorms in the NE Gulf. Fair weather prevails in the central and
western Gulf of Mexico, west of 88W. Moderate anticyclonic winds
prevail across much of the Gulf.

A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce
fresh to strong winds each night as it moves NW into the SW Gulf
of Mexico. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge will slowly move
northward over the Gulf through the weekend, then persist over the
NE Gulf through Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are traversing the Caribbean Sea. See the
Tropical Waves section above for details. The upper level
pattern consists of a shortwave trough across the NW Caribbean Sea
and a weak upper ridge over the central and eastern Caribbean.
The GOES-16 Saharan Air Layer tracking product shows that a plume
of African dust has reached the western and central Caribbean
Sea. In the SW Caribbean, the Colombian low and the East Pacific
monsoon trough are inducing scattered moderate to strong
convection over Panama and the far SW Caribbean, south of 10N.

Strong trades continue to cover the central Caribbean with near
gales in the south-central Caribbean due to the strong pressure
gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low. Nocturnal
pulsing of minimal gale force winds will continue tonight through
Sat night in the Gulf of Venezuela and off the coast of Colombia,
except Thu night. See the Special Features section above for
details. Strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of
Honduras each night through Sun night. Generally moderate to
fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through the weekend and into
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough over Florida supports a surface trough from
29N77W to beyond 32N75W. The diffluent flow associated with the
upper trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection over the
Florida Peninsula and the Atlantic waters within 60 nm of the east
coast of central and northern Florida. Elsewhere north of 26N and
west of 70W, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are present.
The GOES-16 Saharan Air Layer tracking product shows that a plume
of African dust extends from Puerto Rico to the Central Bahamas,
including Hispaniola and eastern and central Cuba. Surface high
pressure ridging covers the remainder of the Atlantic, anchored by
a 1024 mb high near 28N53W. This is supporting fair weather
across much of the Atlantic.

The surface trough from 32N75W to 29N77W will dissipate tonight as
it moves eastward. Strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola
tonight and Thu night. Winds will strengthen over the northern
waters Thu through Fri ahead of a cold front that will move off
the U.S. East Coast late week. A high pressure ridge will dominate
much of the region through Fri, then weaken this weekend as the
cold front continues moving across the western Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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