[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191809
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
209 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and 1007 mb low
pressure over Colombia will continue to support gale force winds
south of 14N between 74W and 78W through 1500 UTC, however, gale
force winds are forecast to return late this afternoon/evening
and continue through Sat. Sea heights will build up to 12-15 ft.
See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at
the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 29W from 11N southward, moving W at
15-25 kt. The upper level diffluence supports scattered moderate
convection from 02N-11N between 27W and 32W. The remainder wave
environment is devoid of convection partly due to strong wind
shear and Saharan dry air in the northern region of the wave.

A tropical wave along 60W from 15N southward, moving W at 15-25
kt. Upper level diffluence and abundant low to mid level moisture
seen in the latest TPW support scattered moderate convection from
09N to 15N between 56W and 63W. This wave is forecast to bring
gusty winds and rain to the Windward Islands on Wed.

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea 71W from Hispaniola
near 18N southward, moving W at 15-25 kt. The wave is moving
through an area of upper level anticyclonic wind flow, that covers
the Caribbean Sea from 78W eastward. Lower Level water vapor
imagery shows a dry environment in that portion of the basin that
along with strong wind shear hinders the development of convection
along the wave axis.

A tropical wave in the southwestern Caribbean 80W from 16N southward,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convective precipitation
is evident from 10N-16N, however, scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is seen south of 10N near the coast of Panama,
Costa Rica and Nicaragua. The combination of the tropical wave and
the Pacific monsoon trough supports this area of convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N20W, then the ITCZ continues from
08N20W to 06N27W. The ITCZ then resumes west of the tropical wave
from 04N33W to 03N50W. In addition to the convection associated
to the tropical wave along 29W, scattered moderate convection is
noted along the ITCZ between 34W-41W. Scattered showers are also
noted near the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The upper level pattern at the moment consists of upper level
ridge building from the west and an upper trough with its axis
extending along 86W. Upper level diffluence flow across the FL
Peninsula supports scattered showers and strong thunderstorms
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico across NE FL. Anticyclonic
flow dominates across the Gulf of Mexico with gentle winds to the
west and moderate to fresh winds to the east. A diurnal surface
trough is noted from 23N90W to 19N92W.

Showers and thunderstorms over the NE Gulf should diminish today
as an upper-level trough moves northeastward away from the Gulf. A
diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce
fresh to locally strong winds each night as it moves northwestward
into the SW Gulf. Otherwise, a ridge will prevail as it slowly
moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper level pattern consists of an upper level shortwave
trough across the NW Caribbean Sea and a upper ridge over the
central Caribbean. Water vapor imagery shows an area of drier
air across most of the western and central Caribbean Sea. To
the eastern Caribbean, an increase in moisture is noted in
association with the tropical wave along 60W. Another tropical
wave is present south of Hispaniola moving across the central
basin,however it lacks convection. A third tropical wave is in
the southwestern Caribbean along 16N with scattered to moderate
isolated strong convection noted near the coast of Panama, Costa
Rica and Nicaragua.

Tight pressure gradient between the western Atlantic high pressure
and the Colombian low pressure support for Gale force winds through
mid morning today. See special features section for more information.
Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are observed in the latest ASCAT
south of Jamaica and the eastern Caribbean Sea. Generally
moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through Sat night.


The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian
low will support winds pulsing to minimal gale force at night off
the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela through Sat night, except Thu
night. Strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras
each night through Sun night. Generally moderate to fresh trades
will prevail elsewhere through Sat night. No tropical cyclone
activity is expected for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough along NW Caribbean Sea supports a surface
trough from 33N76W to 27N77W. The diffluent flow associated with
this feature is enhancing scattered moderate isolated strong
convection across the western Atlantic west of 70W including the
NW Bahamas to 31N. A 1024 mb high pressure is centered near 27N58W.
This is supporting fair weather across much of the Atlantic.

A surface trough will move slowly east off the coast of NE FL
toward 75W through tonight, then dissipate. Strong winds will
pulse north of Hispaniola tonight and Thu night. Winds will
increase some over the northern waters Thu through Fri as the
pressure gradient tightens between the Bermuda high and low
pressure moving eastward from the United States. Otherwise, the
ridge over the western Atlantic will dominate the region before
weakening on Sat. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the
next several days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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