[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...from 11N to 13N between 73W and
76W...Expect NE to E gale-force winds for the rest of the early
morning hours, until later this morning today on Wednesday. The
sea heights will be ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet. The gale-
force winds are forecast to slow down, to be at less than gale-
force, from this morning until late this afternoon. The gale-
force winds will be present, only in the Gulf of Venezuela, from
late this afternoon until early on Thursday morning. Please,
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or
at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 14N
southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 03N to 08N between 27W and 31W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 15N
southward. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 10N
to 12N between 55W and 61W. Other rainshowers are possible, from
14N southward between 50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from Puerto Rico
southward. The wave is moving through an area of upper level
anticyclonic wind flow, that covers the Caribbean Sea from 72W
eastward. Rainshowers are possible in the area of upper level
anticyclonic wind flow.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W, from 17N
southward. No significant deep layer convective precipitation is
apparent at this moment.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 06N27W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N27W to 04N37W and 02N49W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N to 09N between 11W
and 15W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
elsewhere, away from the tropical waves, from 10N southward from
60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The upper level pattern at the moment consists of a ridge, to a
trough, to a ridge, from west to east. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 25N to 28N between 81W in
the western part of Florida and 87W. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere from 24N northward from 90W eastward.

A surface ridge is along 24N/25N, from east to west, in the
Gulf of Mexico.

Rainshowers and thunderstorms in the NE Gulf of Mexico will
diminish today. The wind speeds and the sea heights may be
higher near thunderstorms. A diurnal trough forming in the
Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to locally strong winds
each night as it moves off the coast. A ridge will prevail
across the rest of the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of NW Cuba.
The cyclonic center is spreading cyclonic wind flow across the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 15N northward from 77W
westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea.

A weak upper level trough passes from the north central part of
the Caribbean Sea into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
72W eastward. Rainshowers are possible in the area of upper
level anticyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia, beyond
84W in Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Numerous
strong rainshowers are in parts of Colombia and Panama, in the
SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, and in the eastern Pacific
Ocean, from 03N to 08N between 75W and 82W.

The surface pressure gradient, between the Atlantic Ocean ridge
and the Colombia low pressure, will allow the wind speeds to
pulse to minimal gale-force off the coasts of Colombia and
Venezuela, through Saturday night, except for Thursday night.
Strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each
night through Sunday night. Generally moderate to fresh trade
winds will prevail elsewhere through Saturday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of NW Cuba.
The cyclonic center is spreading cyclonic wind flow across the
Atlantic Ocean from 70W westward. A surface trough extends from
the NW Bahamas northwestward to 31N79W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers cover the area that extends from Cuba
northward from 70W westward, mostly from 26N northward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 19N northward from 74W eastward. A 1023 mb high pressure
center is near 30N59W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 24N northward from 50W eastward. Rainshowers are possible
in this area, in areas of broken to overcast low to middle level
clouds.

A surface trough will move slowly, eastward, off the coast of NE
Florida through tonight, and then dissipate. Strong winds will
pulse N of Hispaniola each night through Thursday night. The
wind speeds will increase some in the northern waters from
Thursday through Friday, as the surface pressure gradient
tightens between the Atlantic Ocean ridge and a low pressure
system that is moving eastward from NE United States. The
western Atlantic Ocean ridge will dominate the rest of the
region through Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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