[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...Expect NE to E gale-force winds
during the rest of the overnight/early morning hours, until
later this morning on Tuesday. The sea heights will be ranging
from 10 feet to 15 feet, from 11N to 13N between 70W and 76W.
The gale-force winds are forecast to slow down, to be at less
than gale-force, from Tuesday morning until Tuesday night. The
gale-force winds will be present during the late night/early
morning hours, on Tuesday night, and on Wednesday night.
Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, or at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 13N southward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 03N to
10N between 40W and 45W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 15N
southward. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong
rainshowers are from 08N to 10N between 47W and 57W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 16N
southward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is to the south
and southeast of the line that runs from 20N64W to 13N76W.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
are in the area of the upper level anticyclonic wind flow.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N18W and 07N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N20W to 05N30W, to 06N38W 08N45W and to 07N55W. Scattered
moderate to strong rainshowers are from 04N to 07N between 18W
and 21W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
elsewhere, away from the tropical waves, from 14N southward from
60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The upper level pattern at the moment consists of a trough, to a
ridge, to a trough, from west to east. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are in the north central Gulf of
Mexico, in the coastal waters of Louisiana, Mississippi, and
Alabama. This precipitation is what is remaining from a
comparatively larger area of scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers, that moved off the Texas coast nearly 24 hours ago.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the eastern one-third of
the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico
into the SW corner of the area.

High pressure will remain across the Gulf of Mexico through
Saturday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near
22N65W, through the Mona Passage, to 14N72W. An upper level
inverted trough is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is to the south and southeast
of the line that runs from 20N64W to 13N76W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are in the same
area, of the upper level anticyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 10N73W in Colombia, to the Colombia
border with Panama, in the southern coastal waters of Panama,
beyond 08N84W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the coastal areas of Panama along 09N between
81W and 82W, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The surface pressure gradient, between the Atlantic Ocean ridge
and the Colombia low pressure, will allow the wind speeds to
pulse to minimal gale-force off the coasts of Colombia and
Venezuela each night this week. Fresh to strong winds are
expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is in the eastern one-third of the Gulf of
Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
remain in and around south Florida and the Bahamas, and in the
NW Caribbean Sea, from 19N northward from 73W westward, in the
Atlantic Ocean. The comparatively strongest rainshowers right
now are off the SE part of Andros Island in the Bahamas.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from 38W westward. A 1022 mb high pressure
center is near 32N56W. A second 1022 mb high pressure center is
near 30N68W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
24N northward between 20W and 70W. A dissipating cold front
passes through 32N13W to 25N26W, 24N31W, and 25N35W. Rainshowers
are possible from 24N northward from 60W eastward.

A surface trough will move slowly, eastward, off NE Florida on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola
each night from Tuesday night through Thursday night. Expect a
ridge, across the rest of the region, through Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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