[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181807
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
207 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

A tight pressure gradient as the Atlantic ridge strengthens will
allow winds to pulse to gale force each night this week off the
coast of Colombia. A NE to E gale-force winds is expected to
return tonight. The sea heights will be ranging from 10 feet to 15
feet, from 11N to 13N between 70W and 76W. See the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa and
extends along 04N-14N between 18W-20W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 04N-08N between 17W-21W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W from 12N southward, moving
W at 20 kt. The wave axis is noted in the satellite imagery and
model diagnostic data suggests a faster motion further west
compared to the last 12 hours. No significant convection is noted
near the wave but can not ruled out scattered showers are possible
near the wave axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W from 14N southward, moving
west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to
11N between 47W and 57W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 15N southward,
moving 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave
axis. The upper level anticyclonic wind flow is to the south and
southeast of the line.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 09N13W, to 07N21W. ITCZ continues from 07N20W to
06N40W, then resumes west of the tropical wave at 07N46W to
08N56W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-06N between
21W-31W and from 06N-10N between 49W-56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A digging mid-level trough is extending into the northwest and
central Gulf of Mexico. This trough, along with upper-level
diffluence in the area, is leading to another round of scattered
moderate isolated strong convection across the north central Gulf
coast, the eastern Gulf and the Florida Peninsula. Convection is
noted north of 26N to 30N between 86W-89W and near the coast of
Florida from 24N-26N between 81W-83W.

The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is relatively quiet. A surface
trough is noted in the Bay of Campeche from 24N91W to 20N93W with
no significant convection observed near the trough. Enhanced
moisture along with scattered thunderstorms will continue over
portions of the eastern Gulf through mid week. Otherwise, high
pressure will remain across the Gulf through Saturday. A diurnal
trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to
locally strong winds each night as it moves off the coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the special features section in regards to the developing gale
north of Colombia. Near-gales are expected over a large area in
the south-central Caribbean, with strong trades over the entire
central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in
the Gulf of Honduras at night.

Currently, a tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean.
See the Tropical Waves section above for details. The western
Caribbean is dominated by ridging, with no significant shower
activity seen for most of the central and western Caribbean. The
exception is over Cuba, where daytime heating is causing afternoon
showers and thunderstorms from 20N between 82W-84W and western
Cuba. The ASCAT pass shows strong trades covering the central
Caribbean from 67W-73W. Fresh trades are elsewhere.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian
low will support pulsing winds to minimal gale force each night
off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela. Strong winds are
expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night. Generally
moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico coupled with
upper-level diffluence over Florida and the NW Bahamas is leading
to more rounds of scattered moderate convection along the Florida
Peninsula and the western Atlantic, including the northwest
Bahamas. This convection can be seen west of 73W, from 26N-31N.
Surface high pressure ridging covers the remainder of the area. A
cold front extends from the Madeira Islands to 23N24W to 23N32W.
No significant showers are seen with the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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