[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...Expect NE to E gale-force winds
during the rest of the overnight/early morning hours, until
later this morning on Tuesday. The sea heights will be ranging
from 10 feet to 13 feet, from 11N to 13N between 70W and 76W.
The gale-force winds are forecast to slow down to be at less
than gale-force, from Tuesday morning until Tuesday night. The
gale-force winds will be present during the late night/early
morning hours, for Monday night, Tuesday night, and on Wednesday
night. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center, under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W from 13N southward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 03N to
13N between 31W and 41W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W from 15N southward.
Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong rainshowers are
from 08N to 12N between 51W and 56W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 67W, from 16N
southward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is to the south
and southeast of the line that runs from 20N64W to 13N76W.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
are in the same area.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W/89W, from the Gulf of
Honduras southward. No significant deep convective precipitation
is apparent with this wave at this moment.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N20W and 07N23W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N23W to 06N29W, to 07N42W and to 08N52W. Scattered
moderate to strong rainshowers are in the coastal areas of
Africa from 08N to 12N from 17W eastward. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N to 08N
between 15W and 21W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere, away from the tropical waves, from
13N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The upper level pattern at the moment consists of a trough, to a
ridge, to a trough, from west to east. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are in the north central Gulf of
Mexico, in the coastal waters of Louisiana, Mississippi, and
Alabama. This precipitation is what is remaining from a
comparatively larger area of scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers, that moved off the Texas coast nearly 24 hours ago.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers remain
in and around south Florida and the Bahamas, from 22N to 26N
from 75W westward, in the Atlantic Ocean. Other areas of
rainshowers, some dissipating with time, are elsewhere in the
Atlantic Ocean from 75W westward.

An NE-to-SW oriented surface ridge is along 25N/27N.

High pressure will remain across the Gulf of Mexico through
Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near
22N65W, through the Mona Passage, to 14N72W. An upper level
inverted trough is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is to the south and southeast
of the line that runs from 20N64W to 13N76W.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
are in the same area.

The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, to the Colombia
border with Panama, along the southern coast of Panama from 80W
westward, beyond SE Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the coastal areas of Panama
along 09N between 80W and 81W.

The surface pressure gradient, between the Atlantic Ocean ridge
and the Colombia low pressure, will allow the wind speeds to
pulse to minimal gale-force off the coasts of Colombia and
Venezuela each night this week. Fresh to strong winds are
expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is in the eastern one-third of the Gulf of
Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
remain in and around south Florida and the Bahamas, from 22N to
26N from 75W westward, in the Atlantic Ocean. Other areas of
rainshowers, some dissipating with time, are elsewhere in the
Atlantic Ocean from 75W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from 41W westward. A 1023 mb high pressure
center is near 26N48W. One 1024 mb high pressure center is near
33N56W. A second 1024 mb high pressure center is near 30N63W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
24N northward between 20W and 70W. A cold front passes through
32N14W to 25N26W. The cold front is dissipating from 25N26W to
24N34W to 26N39W. Rainshowers are possible from 24N northward
from 60W eastward.

A surface trough will move slowly eastward off NE Florida on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Elsewhere, a ridge will cover the area
through Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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