[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W S of 13N. Light
showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W S of 15N. Light
showers are noted near the coast of Guyana. No significant
convection is seen north of 07N.

In the Caribbean Sea, a tropical wave is along 79W S of 17N. Some
scattered moderate convection is seen in the vicinity of the wave,
mainly south of 11N and extends to the coast of Colombia and
Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W
to 05N29W. The ITCZ continues from 05N29W to the coast of Brazil
near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is moving off the coast
of Africa from 08N-10N between 13W-14W. Scattered showers are
also noted along the monsoon trough from 04N-07N between 20W-25W.
There are some thunderstorms near the Brazilian coast interacting
with the ITCZ near 00N between 47W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is seen stretching across the Gulf, from the
Florida Panhandle to northeast Mexico, near 30N84W to 25N97W. An
upper level trough is digging across Texas, which is providing
some upper level divergence along western Gulf coast. This is
fueling scattered moderate convection along the TX and northeast
coast of Mexico. Another upper level trough is situated across
the central and eastern Gulf, which is enhancing scattered
thunderstorm along the eastern Gulf waters and the FL Peninsula,
mainly from 25N-29N west of 84W. A surface trough extends from
24N89W into the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are seen
south of 22N.

In the eastern Gulf, winds are gentle to moderate and out of the
southwest. In the central Gulf, winds are generally light to
gentle. In the northwestern Gulf, post-frontal winds are out of
the northeast and are generally gentle.

A stationary front from the Florida Big Bend to Brownsville Texas
will linger across the northern Gulf through Thu, then dissipate.
Winds will increase in the western Gulf as high pressure builds
across the area by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper level trough digging across the eastern Gulf extends
into the NW Caribbean, with an upper level ridge dominating the
rest of the Caribbean. This is creating an environment favorable
for convection to fire off in the northern and western Caribbean,
mainly west of 73W including Cuba, Jamaica, and the coast of
Honduras and Nicaragua. However, the monsoon trough is extending
in the southern Caribbean from Panama to Colombia and is producing
scattered moderate strong convection moving into the basin,
mostly south of 10N and between 75W-78W. Some isolated showers
are moving across the Lesser Antilles. Trades over the eastern
and and southwest Caribbean are moderate to fresh, with light to
gentle trades in the northwest basin.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds in the south central Caribbean through Sat, with moderate to
locally fresh trades elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Most of the scattered shower activity occurring over the western
Atlantic is associated to upper level divergence from the digging
trough over the eastern Gulf. This scattered showers extend from
the Caribbean across Cuba, Bahamas and western Atlantic waters
west of 73W. In the central Atlantic, a cold front continues to
press southward and enters the waters near 31N42W and stretches
to near 28N55W. The front then stalls from 28N55W to the north to
31N58W in which the boundary continues northward toward the New
England coast. Light showers are seen along the front but
otherwise no significant convection is occurring with this
feature. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin from
a 1030 mb high north of 49N with tranquil conditions.

Fresh southerly winds are expected east of northern Florida
tonight. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Fri, then
stall and weaken north of the Bahamas Fri and Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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